Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Equity analysts at National Bank see the macroeconomic backdrop remaining “supportive” for precious metal prices in the near term, pointing to “ongoing political uncertainty, declining real rates, persistent inflation and central banks remaining net purchasers.”
In a research report released Tuesday, the firm updated its commodity price deck, remaining bullish on the outlook for prices in the months ahead, particularly for silver due to “continued supply deficits, seasonality and heightened silver outperformance later in precious metals rallies.”
“We have updated our estimates, metals prices and FX rates to reflect the current price environment and have also increased our long-term gold and silver price forecast to US$2,600 per ounce (was US$2,500/oz) and US$29.00/oz (wasUS$28.00/oz),” the analysts said.
They also see an improved near-term outlook for copper due to the seismic issues and associated production impacts at Kamoa-Kakula complex in Democratic Republic of the Congo. They also expect a rebound in uranium prices to continue “with strong policy support.” However, they remain “cautious” on lithium in the near term, given an oversupplied market.
With the changes to their commodity price forecasts, the analysts updated target prices for stocks in their coverage universe and made one rating revision.
Citing an elevated valuation versus peers following an extended period of share price outperformance, analyst Don DeMarco lowered Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a Street-high $89 target, rising from $67.75. The average target is $57.77, according to LSEG data.
“LUG has earned a premium valuation through strong management; exceptional operating performance; de-levered financial performance into a buoyant gold tape; and exploration success,” he said. “At current prices FDN [Fruta del Norte] operations appear fully-priced, with additional share price upside contingent upon proving out exploration and FDNS, Bonza Sur, Trancalomoa and other near mine targets, and we plan to revisit our valuation and rating after such projects are further de-risked with a clearer view of NPV and capex. We also consider M&A risk, given company messaging, now heightened at a premium valuation.”
The firm’s top picks are currently:
Precious Metals
- Artemis Gold Inc. (ARTG-X) with an “outperform” rating and $33 target, up from $26. The average on the Street is $28.
- Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T) with an “outperform” rating and $19 target, up from $18.75. Average: $19.61.
- Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV-T) with an “outperform” rating and $57 target, up from $51. Average: $47.59.
- Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR-T) with an “outperform” rating and $9 target (unchanged). Average: $8.20.
- G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $25 target, up from $24. Average: $24.90.
- IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T) with an “outperform” rating and $16 target, up from $15. Average: $13.62.
- Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T) with an “outperform” rating and $26 target, up from $25. Average: $26.25.
- OR Royalties Inc. (OR-T) with an “outperform” rating and $40 target, up from $38. Average: $34.72.
Base Metals
- Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) with an “outperform” rating and $14.50 target (unchanged). Average: $15.31.
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $16.50 target, up from $15.50. Average: $15.68.
- Taseko Mines Ltd. (TKO-T) with an “outperform” rating and $5.25 target, up from $4.50. Average: $4.61.
- Ngex Minerals Ltd. (NGEX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $18 target, up from $17. Average: $18.
- Solaris Resources Inc. (SLS-T) with an “outperform” rating and $12.50 target (unchanged). Average: $12.42.
Critical Minerals
- Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) with an “outperform” rating and $100 target, up from $95. Average: $92.13.
- Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T) with an “outperform” rating and $3.75 target (unchanged). Average: $3.85.
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In a report released Tuesday titled Prepared for the worst, but still hoping for the best, Canaccord Genuity analyst Matthew Lee reaffirmed his positive view on Canada’s banks, but he warned they are heading into “opaque waters.”
“Q2 was a quiet quarter for the banks, with results largely playing out as expected,“ he said. ”Each of the Big 6 delivered solid PTPP numbers offset to varying degrees by performing PCLs. In our view, this positions the industry to weather uncertainty and, of course, leaves room for releases in the future if geopolitical tensions ease and global macroeconomic conditions improve. In contrast to the firms’ conservative actions on credit, we found management commentary to be fairly optimistic across the board. Most of the banks highlighted an acceleration of corporate, investment, and commercial banking as near-term areas of earnings growth with the predominant view being that impaired credit will be manageable for the back half of the year, with a PCL step down in F26.
“Barring significant tariff-related disruptions, we view the current setup as constructive with opportunities for the group to drive accelerating earnings growth over the coming quarters. From our perspective, the group’s premium to historical valuations is justified by sizeable capital buffers and the prospect of above-average EPS growth over the next two to three years.”
Mr. Lee thinks “the biggest story” coming out of earnings season was “the uniform decision by management teams to take large performing provisions to account for the current state of geopolitical opacity.”
“On average, the Big 6 put through 17bps of performing PCLs [provisions for credit losses], more than the prior three quarters combined,” he noted. “In our view, this should help soften the earnings impact of unforeseen economic adversity and is easily digestible given the group’s capital position. Post-quarter, we have raised our total PCL expectations but view credit as relatively benign and unlikely to impede the banks’ path to high single-digit EPS growth for F25E. As operational visibility improves, we note that each of the banks can release allowances, which could be a source of earnings growth in F26 but is not yet built into our forecast.”
With his medium-term thesis on the banks’ earnings growth remaining largely intact and seeing the second-quarter earnings season supporting his “expectation for improving earnings growth as credit remains manageable and loan growth reaccelerates,” Mr. Lee made modest forecast adjustments, leading to these target price changes:
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “buy”) to $81 from $80. The average is $77.29.
- National Bank of Canada (NA-T, “hold”) to $138 from $136. Average: $139.69.
Mr. Lee kept these targets:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “buy”) at $166. Average: $154.36.
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “hold”) at $96. Average: $100.48.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “buy”) at $194. Average: $182.48.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “buy”) at $101. Average: $96.06.
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TD Cowen analyst Vince Valentini thinks wireless industry price competition has “become less negative” in recent weeks and “not as aggressive as we saw towards the end of Q1/25.”
“Over the past few days, our in-store channel checks have detected a bit of front book discounting (such as $40/60GB from Fido/Virgin, versus $45/60GB advertised on websites), but nothing that we would consider unusual or concerning in the last 10 days of a quarter,” he said in a client note. “We have also seen back book price increases announced by Koodo and Virgin for up to $7 per month (from $34 to $41). When we package the encouraging pricing data with our recent analysis on the large percentage of wireless subs that have already re-priced lower in the past two years (around 60-65 per cent for each of Rogers/Bell/TELUS), we believe investor sentiment towards the sector is gradually improving, with some hope that ARPU/revenue/ EBITDA estimates for 2026 could start to move higher over the next few months (we first need to see relative discipline on pricing during the critical back-to-school season from mid-August to mid-September).”
With a “potential industry recovery in sight,” Mr. Valentini thinks investors will increasingly shift positioning to Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T), pointing to “its industry-leading mix of wireless EBITDA and its sector-low valuation.”
“Furthermore, Rogers has finally closed the $7-billion infrastructure funding with Blackstone, and the $4.7-billion MLSE deal with BCE is set to close in early July now that all league and regulatory approvals have been received,” he added. “We believe this starts the clock on RCI finalizing negotiations with new private investors in its sports teams (MLSE and Blue Jays), which we would view as a very meaningful catalyst for the stock over the next 3-6 months (possibly even sooner than that).
“There is some risk involved in buying RCI.B shares before this transaction occurs (in case it takes longer, or in case they cannot negotiate a deal at a favourable valuation), but it is a risk we are willing to accept when we consider asymmetric upside potential versus further downside risk for the stock at current valuation levels.“
Mr. Valentini made a pair of target price adjustments and updated his pecking order based on his new industry view. His changes are:
- Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T, “buy”) to $46 from $44. The average is $41.48.
- Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T, “buy”) to $60 from $56. Average: $51.61.
“Given the material outperformance of TELUS and QBR shares on a year-to-date and LTM [last 12-month] basis, we are moving those names down our pecking order, whilst moving RCI.B up to top spot,” he said. “Our revised pecking order among the five Canadian telco/cable names is RCI.B, CCA, T, QBR.B, BCE (previous order was T, CCA, QBR.B, RCI.B, BCE). There have been no revenue or EBITDA estimate changes for any names today (we expect to refine our thoughts about Q2/25 expectations as the quarter comes to a close in the next 1-2 weeks), and no target price changes for BCE, T, or CCA. For QBR.B, we have bumped our wireless segment target multiple to 8.5 times EBITDA, versus 8.25 times previously, to reflect the superior revenue growth potential for QBR/Freedom in an environment where pricing and ARPU should turn upwards, while Freedom should continue to gradually increase market share across ON/AB/BC/MB.
“For RCI.B, we have simply harmonized our base case wireless multiple at the same level we had already been using for BCE and TELUS, which is 8.0 times EBITDA (previously we had been using 7.5 times for wireless at Rogers, out of an abundance of caution given balance sheet uncertainty stacked on top of wireless industry headwinds). We have also removed our assumption for $500-million in non-core asset sales in 2026 (an attempt to be more conservative, given that we believe RCI will be focused on sports monetization as opposed to real estate and DCs), and as a reminder we assume in our debt forecast that Rogers stays at 75-per-cent ownership of MLSE after paying $4.7-billion to BCE. In other words, despite our expectation that RCI will re-sell some of that sports equity, we are not giving credit for that transaction until a deal is announced. Also note that we are not factoring in either securitization of credit card receivables, or a reduction in future capex below $3.8-billion per year, even though we believe those are also possible future positive catalysts for the stock. The net of the changes above is an increase in our target price to $60.00 from $56.00, which implies a meaningful all-in return of 60 per cent over the next 12 months.”
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Pointing to “the unstoppable trend towards automation,” National Bank Financial analyst John Shao initiated coverage of mobile industrial and commercial surveillance solutions provider Zedcor Inc. (ZDC-X) with an “outperform” recommendation on Tuesday, believing it already displays the “rare” and “unique” combination of “stellar growth coupled with stable profitability.”
“Its MobileyeZ security towers provide turnkey and customized mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions to blue-chip customers across North America,” he said. “In our view, this is a simple but highly effective business model that could be summarized as ‘Build– Deploy – Monitor’. It’s essentially a hardware-enabled service model with Zedcor manufacturing and deploying its MobileyeZ fleet while generating a predictable service revenue. Its go-to-market strategy is also straightforward, with Zedcor targeting a growing list of metropolitan areas by establishing local presence.”
Mr. Shao thinks the Toronto-based company, which uses its MobileyeZ security towers to provide turn-key and customized mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions, is “well-positioned to benefit” from the move toward automation in the security industry, which he emphasized had previously been “labour-intensive.”
“A worsening public safety environment fosters innovation and sales efforts by companies like Zedcor,” he added. “As they grow, a robust ecosystem starts taking shape to address this challenge through collaborative solutions and advanced technologies.”
“We estimate customers could save 70 per cent by using Zedcor’s mobile security solutions, while the Company’s capital investment bears an attractive return of 35 per cent. In our view, the emerging mobile security tower business resembles the industry’s ‘Ride-Hailing Apps’ moment (e.g., Uber and Lyft) by transforming underutilized security assets into flexible, on-demand services. It’s a win-win situation, with customers realizing meaningful savings while Zedcor achieves robust returns based on our quantitative analysis.”
Believing its “growth momentum will continue,” Mr. Shao set a target of $5 per share. The current average is $4.80.
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Calling it his “preferred choice for income,” offering “a well-covered, low-risk distribution, supported by a conservative payout ratio and solid protection at the portfolio level,” Raymond James analyst David Pierse initiated coverage of Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD.UN-T) with an “outperform” recommendation.
“Alaris has an excellent investment track record: since inception, the company has deployed approximately $2.7-billion in capital, while generating an unlevered IRR of 16 per cent on $1-billion of exited investments,” he said. “While the stock has been dealt a couple of blows in recent years (e.g. Covid, higher interest rates), Alaris has still delivered a total unitholder return of 13.2 per cent annually since its IPO in 2008, far outpacing the TSX/Composite index at 9.0 per cent over the same time period.
“We believe Alaris provides unitholders with a well-covered distribution and an attractive yield of 7 per cent at current trading levels, with added optionality on book value/unit growth through the company’s common equity and convertible preferred equity investments. Investors don’t appear to be paying for this at current prices, and at 0.8 times 2026 estimated book value, the risk/reward looks compelling to us here.”
He set a target of $24 per share. The current average is $25.05.
“Patience is a virtue, but we see no reason for this discount to stay,” said Mr. Pierse. “We believe Alaris should trade at book or higher given the ROE potential, which could sustainably operate in a mid-to-low teen’s range once fair value impacts are included (in our view). The current multiple appears to overlook this, and while higher interest rates possibly aren’t helping, we are hopeful Alaris gets back to a fairer trading range as the company continues to execute and the embedded ROE potential becomes clearer.”
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TD Cowen analyst Derick Ma reaffirmed Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM-T) as his top small and mid-cap stock idea among precious metals royalty companies, pointing to its “track record, assets, balance sheet, and management team to support and grow the business through royalty acquisitions/financing and corporate M&A.”
“Northparkes is an anchor asset in TFPM’s portfolio; the underlying mine operates in the first quartile of the cost curve with an 30-year mine life and is located in a Tier 1 jurisdiction (Australia),” he said in a client note. “Northparkes sets a stable foundation of cash flows, and together with current available liquidity of up to $1-billion, we believe TFPM is well-positioned to grow the business through deal execution and potential corporate M&A in the near-to-medium term. Furthermore, we believe TFPM’s asset portfolio would be attractive as a potential acquisition target for the ‘Big 3’ royalty companies (Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious, and Royal Gold) if we see broader consolidation in the sector.”
“Since its inception in 2016, management has built the company through the execution of successive deals without any initial assets in the portfolio. Today, TFPM’s portfolio consists of 17 streams and 219 royalties, including 30 cash-flowing assets. Strong continuity in its senior management team has been a key driver of success since TFPM’s initial public offering in 2021. In spite of the departure of the founder and former CEO Shaun Usmar in September 2024, the vast majority of the ‘original’ senior management team remains intact.”
Maintaining a “buy” rating, Mr. Ma raised his target for shares of the Toronto-based company to $39 from $36. The current average is $36.27.
Other TD analysts making target adjustments to their top smidcap ideas are:
* Michael Tupholme with Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T) to $55 from $48 with a “buy” rating. The average is $49.63.
“AFN has a favourable medium to long-term growth outlook. The Commercial segment is growing strongly, while the Farm segment is poised to see meaningful upside as the agriculture cycle turns more positive. AFN has structurally improved its across-the-cycle margins, and a recovery in higher-margin Farm will further support profitability. AFN’s valuation is attractive vs. historical levels and peers,” he said.
* Craig Hutchison with Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) to $15 from $13 with a “buy” rating. The average is $15.31.
“Hudbay is our top SMIDCAP idea among the base metals producers. The company is well positioned to benefit from record gold prices combined with a strong pipeline of copper assets and growth projects in stable mining jurisdictions. Its pipeline should benefit from growing copper demand through electrification, combined with constrained supply and a lack of projects that can be built this decade,” he said.
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Aya Gold & Silver Inc.’s (AYA-T) exploration success at its Boumadine polymetallic mine in Morocco is “making it a key value driver” moving forward, said Stifel analyst Ingrid Rico after a recent site visit.
“Consistent drill results are not only highlighting good continuity of the mineralization system, but also a growing mineral resource inventory,” she said. “Furthermore, what was key to us was to put into perspective the regional scale potential. In our view, Boumadine shows good resource upside and potentially for additional discoveries.
“Boumadine’s metallurgy has become a big question for the market to understand the development options, and value of this project. To treat the refractory component of the precious metals there are options. Aya has been referring to building a roaster, which comes with its technical and capex intensive challenges (but there’s strategic rationale given the evolving scale). That said, a lower capital intensive option is to produce a pyrite concentrate which Aya has confirmed (with indicative quotes) there is a market for Boumadine’s potential pyrite concentrate. Development concepts, as Boumadine advances towards a PEA, are likely to evaluate the merits of both mine plan scenarios for an envisioned operation of 8-10ktpd.”
Ms. Rico is also “encouraged” by the progress on the ramp-up of Aya’s Zgounder flagship silver mine.
“The visit to Boumadine left us with positive impressions to daylight increasing value, whereas Zgounder is making marked steps forward on its ramp-up,” she said. “Dilution at Zgounder remains the sticking point as we take a more conservative view on grade (and dilution impact). That said, we see mill throughput and marked improvement on recovery rates as good levers to offset current mining dilution.”
Reiterating a “buy” rating, Ms. Rico trimmed her target by $1 to $22, exceeding the $19.61 average.
“We continue to see a two-pronged approach to unlocking value and regain silver-play premium in Aya’s shares: (1) through operational execution at Zgounder – path to FCF inflection point, and (2) exploration and technical de-risking daylighting further value of Boumadine’s growing mineralization system,” she said.
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In other analyst actions:
* In reaction to its 3-for-1 share consolidation, Scotia’s Ovais Habib moved his OceanaGold Corp. (OGC-T) target to $20.50 from $6.50 with a “sector outperform” rating, while Raymond James’ Farooq Hamed increased his target to $24 from $6.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $6.92.
“As previously disclosed, OGC is also considering a dual listing of its common shares on a major U.S. exchange in the first half of 2026, which could lead to increased interest from a wider audience of potential investors,” he noted. “The motivation for the consolidation is to raise the trading price of the company’s common shares to better comply with minimum trading price requirements of U.S. exchanges.”