Silver price outlook: Silver prices continued their upward march on Monday, boosted by weakness in the US dollar and declining Treasury yields, pushing the metal closer to its historic highs. On MCX, March silver futures were up 1.36% at ₹1,95,466 per kg around 9:15 am, extending their sharp gains from the previous session, when they surged ₹2,700 or 1.3% to hit an all-time high of ₹2,01,615 per kg.
“The increase in Silver to the ₹2lakh level has been fueled by tightening stocks, strong industrial demand, and the metal’s inclusion on the US key minerals list. Demand has been especially robust in the solar, electric vehicle, and data centre sectors. Strong ETF inflows and retail buying bolstered forecasts of a market deficit next year. At the same time, rising leasing rates and higher borrowing prices for physical silver in London hinted at persistent delivery issues,” explained Renisha Chainani, Head – Research at Augmont.
After three straight interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve indicated that one more rate cut is expected in 2026. The market, on the other hand, sees the risks skewed in favour of the Fed doing more, with many analysts, including us, forecasting more 25 basis point cuts in March and June. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance will remain a central subject as markets anticipate fresh indications of its future steps.
Spot silver has already delivered a spectacular 126% jump this year, rising nearly ₹1,08,000 per kg amid tightening global supplies and strong physical demand. Gold too participated in the broader commodities rally, with MCX February futures trading 0.72% higher at ₹1,34,580 per 10 grams, after hitting a new record of ₹1,35,263 on Friday.
Adding to bullish sentiment, China announced fresh curbs on silver exports starting January 2026, a policy that will remain in force through 2027 and requires exporters to obtain government licences. Analysts believe this could significantly squeeze global supply. Meanwhile, India’s appetite for physical silver is rising sharply—imports crossed 2,600 tonnes during September–October, including 1,715 tonnes in October alone, signalling robust demand from industry and investors alike.
Axis Direct sees silver at ₹2.4 lakh in 2026
According to Axis Direct, silver’s outstanding performance in 2025 follows an already strong 2024, with the metal delivering its highest yearly gain—over 100%—since 1979. The brokerage noted that silver has broken out of a multi-year consolidation, entering the early phase of a powerful structural uptrend.
Axis Direct recommends using any decline toward ₹1,70,000– ₹1,78,000 as an opportunity for staggered accumulation, with a 2026 target of ₹2,40,000.
Axis Direct reported, “Silver has broken out of a massive rounding-bottom formation stretching from 2011 to 2025, clearing the crucial neckline at $50 and surging to a new all-time high of $64. This confirms the start of a long-term bullish cycle supported by strengthening macro momentum.”
The firm highlighted that the 20-month and 60-month EMAs have turned upward, signalling classic early-cycle confirmation. Monthly RSI remains elevated but healthy, consistent with silver’s historical tendency to rally even in high-RSI zones. Axis Direct expects the metal to test $65–$67 in the near term, with a sustained close above $67 opening the door to $76–$80.
Axis Direct emphasised that silver’s market fundamentals have undergone a major shift. The brokerage noted, “The silver market is undergoing a historic repricing event driven by chronic supply deficits, industrial scarcity, and weakened correlation with gold. With the market short by nearly 700 Moz between 2021 and 2025, the deficit is projected to exceed 100 Moz in 2026.”
Risks, however, remain: silver above $60/oz may trigger demand destruction or substitution in industrial segments, while a slowdown in the high-tech electronics sector could temporarily cap prices.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.