Support Structure and Pullback Scenarios
Should profit-taking emerge, the short-term bull trend offers layered support. Immediate attention falls on the December higher monthly low at $56.19—breaching this would mark the first meaningful trend weakening in months and open deeper retracement risk. Next in line sits the 10-week moving average, currently rising through $52.52, followed by the prior peak and long-term breakout level near $49.81.
A drop below the 10-week average points to the 20-week average at $46.87 currently, followed by the most recent higher swing low at $45.55. However, if that swing low is approached it seems likely to fail. As long as price holds above these zones, the path of least resistance favors buyers regaining control after any digestion phase.
Monthly closing dynamics add nuance: a December finish above the range midpoint (currently $60.43) would maintain stronger positioning, especially after five of the past seven months fell minimally into the previous month’s range before rallying—a classic sign of underlying demand absorbing dips.
Fundamental Drivers into 2026
Fundamentals align constructively with the technical picture heading into the new year. The Silver Institute and major analysts project another structural market deficit in 2026—the sixth consecutive year—driven by near-record industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and emerging AI infrastructure, even as thrifting efforts modestly curb per-unit usage.