Central-bank demand may average 50 tons a month, more than previously expected, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note. Should uncertainty over economic policy persist, including on tariffs, bullion could hit $3,300 an ounce on higher speculative positioning, they said. The latter figure implies an annual gain of 26%. Spot gold was at $2,931 on Tuesday at 2300 IST.
The precious metal has roared higher this year, setting successive records in a seven-week winning run that’s built on last year’s surge.
The commodity’s sustained advance has been driven by increased purchases by central banks, a streak of rate cuts from the Fed and, more recently, mounting investor concern over US President Donald Trump’s disruptive tariff announcements.
“‘We reiterate our ‘Go for Gold’ trading recommendation,” Thomas and Struyven wrote. “We see significant hedging value in long gold positions because of a potential increase in trade tensions.”
In addition, inflation fears and fiscal risks “may push central banks —especially those holding large US Treasury reserves — to buy more gold,” they said. The more bullish outlook — which came after Goldman pushed back a year-end $3,000 forecast last month — followed official-sector purchases estimated at 108 tons in December, according to the analysts. Elsewhere, there’ll be a “gradual boost” to ETF holdings on two expected Fed cuts, they said. The revised forecast sits alongside a host of other bullish predictions from leading banks.
Among them, Citigroup Inc. said earlier in February that it expects prices to hit $3,000 an ounce within three months, with geopolitical tensions and trade wars stoked by Trump boosting demand for haven assets.
Central-bank accumulation has been a major theme in the global bullion market over recent quarters. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China expanded its holdings for a third straight month in January. Other official buyers have included Poland and India, according to the World Gold Council.