Gold (XAU/USD) prices remain near all-time highs, but the associated narratives are stale, TDS senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Risk of a positioning washout is the highest of the year
“Macro fund positioning is statistically consistent with the aggressive 200bps of Fed cuts priced into rates markets over the coming twelve months. CTAs are sitting on their ‘max long’ position size, whereas the threshold for a deterioration in uptrend signals inches closer by the day.”
“Asian flows have notably deteriorated, following a short pause to the buyer’s strike tied to a brief wave of buying activity associated with the change in Indian duties. Shanghai trader positioning remains near record levels, but is increasingly under pressure.”
“Several of the major cohorts in Gold markets are now facing buying exhaustion, whereas the narrative that propelled prices to these all-time highs now appears stale. The risk of a positioning washout is at its highest levels of the year.”