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You’re looking at a company trading at 6.89 times earnings with 59.6% return on equity, 68% gross margin, and 73% revenue growth. If this were a U.S. tech company, the multiple would be 40x, not 7x. But this is Kaspi.kz, Kazakhstan’s fintech super app, and the market is pricing in every emerging market risk.
The stock has fallen 15.7% over the past year, dropping from $91.83 to $77.40. Analysts see 41% upside to their $108.49 consensus target, yet the discount persists. The question isn’t whether Kaspi has a strong business. It clearly does. The question is whether Kazakhstan’s geopolitical risk, regulatory uncertainty, and macro headwinds justify this valuation gap.
The Business Model Works
Kaspi operates a super app combining payments, e-commerce, and fintech in Kazakhstan. Think Alipay meets Amazon meets a digital bank. In Q3 2025, the company generated 1.11 trillion KZT in revenue ($2.5 billion) with 278 billion KZT in net income. The payments platform grew 18% in volume, the marketplace expanded its take rate to an all-time high of 10.3%, and the fintech platform grew loans 30% year-over-year.
CEO Mikheil Lomtadze explained the Q3 performance: “The core business has remained strong” despite smartphone supply shortages that cut GMV by 8% and new taxes on government securities that reduced net income by 1%. Strip out those factors, and revenue growth was 23%.
The advertising business is exploding, up 56% in Q3 and 76% for the nine-month period. Lomtadze noted: “Merchants provide positive feedback, and we’re optimistic that advertising will experience faster growth than the rest of our revenue.” The company is launching Kaspi AI in January 2026 to help merchants create product content, having already enriched over 500,000 products.
Why the Discount Exists
Goldman Sachs upgraded Kaspi to Buy in October 2025 with a $107 target, arguing the stock trades at a “significant discount” due to regulatory costs and elevated interest rates. But JPMorgan downgraded in December, cutting its target to $88 and citing a “softening 2026 fintech outlook.”
The macro picture is messy. Kazakhstan’s base rate jumped from 15.25% to 16.5%, costing Kaspi 4% of consolidated net income. New minimum reserve requirements that generate no interest cost another 1%. Currency volatility and geopolitical uncertainty are constant background noise.
Then there’s the Turkey expansion. Kaspi acquired 65% of Hepsiburada and is awaiting regulatory approval to close its Rabobank A.Ş. acquisition. These moves diversify geographic risk but add execution uncertainty. The company raised $100 million in share capital for Hepsiburada and issued a $650 million bond in March 2025.
The Verdict
If you believe Kazakhstan’s fintech market can sustain 20%+ growth and that regulatory/currency risks are priced in at 7x earnings, Kaspi is absurdly cheap. If you think emerging market risk deserves a 50% discount regardless of fundamentals, the valuation makes sense. The company reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 26, 2026. Watch for smartphone supply recovery and commentary on 2026 interest rate normalization. This is either a screaming buy or a value trap, and the next 12 months will tell us which.