This smallcase manager predicts a 7%–20% swing in gold prices by FY26

Gold prices may swing between a 7% decline and a 20% gain by FY26, according to a report by SmartWealth.ai, a smallcase manager. The report highlights that while gold shows a slight upward bias in the near term, global uncertainties could drive major price shifts.

“Gold prices could modestly rise by 3–7% by the next Akshaya Tritiya in 2026,” said SmartWealth.ai in its outlook.

However, factors like inflation, currency weakness, and geopolitical tensions may push returns far higher—or lower—over the year.

In the past 10 Akshaya Tritiya periods (2016–2025), gold delivered a strong 12.3% CAGR, nearly catching up with Nifty 50’s 11.4% CAGR. During the same time, gold prices have surged 166.8%.

Gold vs equity

Pankaj Singh, Founder and Principal Researcher at SmartWealth.ai, said, “The past year was an outlier. While Nifty 50 gave 7% returns, gold rose over 30%. Such a divergence occurs with a probability below 2%.”

The report reiterates gold’s role as a “dynamic diversifier,” not just a passive asset.

Gold has repeatedly outperformed equities during crisis periods:

Crisis Period	Nifty 50 Return	Gold Return
Global Financial Crisis (2007–09)	-45%	56%
Eurozone Debt Crisis (2010–12)	-24%	35%
COVID Plateau (2018–20)	-26%	42%
Stagflation (2021–23)	-3%	24%
Geopolitical Crosswinds (Oct ’24–Now)	-6%	24%

(Source: SmartWealth.ai)

Singh added, “Gold tends to retain its value when fiat currencies weaken. It’s a reliable store of wealth, especially during inflation or crisis.”

Tactical diversification needed

SmartWealth.ai’s Diversified Momentum Investing (DMI) model sees:

• Equities (Nifty 50): Mild downward bias; possible -7% to +3% range in the near term.
• Gold: Slight upward bias; range-bound between -4% to +5%.

The firm emphasises active portfolio rebalancing.

“In this environment, dynamic risk management is more critical than ever,” Singh noted.