“Gold prices could modestly rise by 3–7% by the next Akshaya Tritiya in 2026,” said SmartWealth.ai in its outlook.
However, factors like inflation, currency weakness, and geopolitical tensions may push returns far higher—or lower—over the year.
In the past 10 Akshaya Tritiya periods (2016–2025), gold delivered a strong 12.3% CAGR, nearly catching up with Nifty 50’s 11.4% CAGR. During the same time, gold prices have surged 166.8%.
Gold vs equity
Pankaj Singh, Founder and Principal Researcher at SmartWealth.ai, said, “The past year was an outlier. While Nifty 50 gave 7% returns, gold rose over 30%. Such a divergence occurs with a probability below 2%.”
The report reiterates gold’s role as a “dynamic diversifier,” not just a passive asset.
Gold has repeatedly outperformed equities during crisis periods:
| Crisis Period | Nifty 50 Return | Gold Return |
| Global Financial Crisis (2007–09) | -45% | 56% |
| Eurozone Debt Crisis (2010–12) | -24% | 35% |
| COVID Plateau (2018–20) | -26% | 42% |
| Stagflation (2021–23) | -3% | 24% |
| Geopolitical Crosswinds (Oct ’24–Now) | -6% | 24% |
(Source: SmartWealth.ai)
Singh added, “Gold tends to retain its value when fiat currencies weaken. It’s a reliable store of wealth, especially during inflation or crisis.”
Tactical diversification needed
SmartWealth.ai’s Diversified Momentum Investing (DMI) model sees:
- Equities (Nifty 50): Mild downward bias; possible -7% to +3% range in the near term.
- Gold: Slight upward bias; range-bound between -4% to +5%.
The firm emphasises active portfolio rebalancing.
“In this environment, dynamic risk management is more critical than ever,” Singh noted.
First Published: Apr 29, 2025 5:35 PM IST