Research for the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Science and Technology in Agriculture (APPGSTA) found that competing targets for house building, nature recovery, renewable energy, tree planting and infrastructure could together remove up to 25% of Britain’s farmed land by 2050, much of it prime arable ground.
The study, led by Dr Derrick Wilkinson, former chief economist at the NFU, warns that without renewed focus on productivity and innovation, domestic food output could fall by 32% by 2050, or 39% per capita, at current growth rates.
To address this, the APPGSTA is calling for a cross-government framework known as the ’30:50:50 mission’, which aims to boost UK agricultural output by 30% while halving the sector’s environmental footprint by mid-century. The group also wants a statutory target of 75% food self-sufficiency by 2050.
APPGSTA chair George Freeman MP said British agriculture stood ‘at a tipping point’. “Despite favourable growing conditions, world-class agri-science and a highly professional sector, UK agricultural productivity growth has stalled,” he said, blaming fragmented policies, inconsistent regulation and slow uptake of innovation.
“Without radical reform, we risk further erosion of food self-sufficiency and growing reliance on imports at a time when geopolitical instability and climate extremes threaten global food supply chains.”
Freeman acknowledged the ambition of the government’s Food Strategy, published in July, but warned that competing priorities such as large-scale solar and infrastructure projects on productive farmland could undermine it.
The report concludes that current policies are not fit for purpose, citing inconsistent regulation, underinvestment in research and skills, and a lack of focus on food production.
It calls for a National Farm Data Initiative to benchmark progress, prioritisation of genetic and biotechnological innovation, protection of high-quality farmland, outcomes-based farm support, and incentives to drive adoption of precision and AI-driven technologies.
Freeman said the 30:50:50 framework had ‘struck a chord’ across the industry. “The tools and technologies already exist to help British farmers produce more with less impact – but political alignment is needed to make it happen.”