Decreased Rainfall in Yemen: Implications for Agriculture and Ongoing Flood Risks
In October, there is a notable decrease in rainfall across various places, especially in the highland and coastal areas. This marks the onset of a drier period, with reduced precipitation potentially affecting agriculture in some areas. The reduced rains can lead to challenges such as soil moisture decrease, impacting crop growth and causing water stress for both agriculture and livestock. Farmers are encouraged to optimize their irrigation practices and closely monitor crops for any signs of stress.
Key Concerns:
Reduced Rainfall Patterns: During the second dekad of October, a significant decrease in rainfall could disrupt the agricultural calendar. The Central Highlands and Southern Uplands will experience a drop, with maximum cumulative rainfall ranging from 60 to 100 mm observed across the Ibb and Taizz governorates. This is particu- larly important for rainfed crops like sorghum and millet, which depend on longer sufficient soil moisture for healthy growth.
With declining rainfall and longer than normal dry spell in some areas may add stress to already vulnerable agricultural systems. Dry conditions not only affect crop yields but also reduces available pasture for livestock, potentially negatively affecting livestock health and productivity. As rainfall decreases, soil moisture becomes insufficient to sustain longer cycle crops, necessitating a greater dependence on other water sources and irri- gation systems by farmers.
Residual Flooding Risk: In October, the lingering risk of flooding in southern Yemen remains substantial, even as the rainy season subsides. Although overall rainfall diminishes, localized and abrupt storms can still arise, espe- cially in low-lying coastal areas and areas near the wadis of Mowza, Rasian, and Tuban (refer to Fig. 1). These areas are susceptible to flash floods, particularly where drainage systems are insufficient.
Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security:
- Impact on Crop Development – October is crucial for many crops, with some entering the ripening phase and others the planting phase. Reduced or early withdrawal rainfall during this period can hinder crop mat- uration, delay harvests, or result in lower-quality yields. Crops like wheat and vegetables may suffer due to decreased soil moisture, compelling farmers to adapt to unpredictable weather conditions.
- Livelihood and Economic Implications – Reduced rainfall poses a direct threat to livelihoods, as farmers rely- ing on seasonal rains for irrigation may see decreased income from lower crop yields or subpar harvests. Livestock herders might encounter difficulties if pasture lands become less productive, necessitating longer travel to find grazing areas. The economic effects of reduced rainfall extend beyond individual farmers, affecting the national economy by potentially affecting prices.