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While dividend stocks are usually thought of as stable income producers, that’s not always the case. And shareholders of Topps Tiles (LSE:TPT) have discovered this first-hand, with the firm’s market capitalisation tumbling by 25% over the last 12 months.
Seeing any investment lose a quarter of its value in the space of a year is never fun. However, downturns in market prices can create exceptional buying opportunities if the long-term potential remains intact. And since Topps Tiles also pays a dividend, investors might also be able to lock in an impressive yield at the same time.
That certainly seems to be the opinion of one City analyst who placed a share price target of 70p on the stock. Compared to where shares are trading today, this represents a potential 125% return over the next 12 months paired with an impressive 7.7% yield.
So is this analyst being overly optimistic? Or is Topps Tiles a dividend stock to consider buying right now?
Investigating the problems
Stocks move up and down in the short-term fairly randomly based on the mood of investors. But when a company sees its valuation trend downward over a period of several months, that’s usually a sign of something being wrong. In the case of Topps Tiles, there appear to be three primary issues:
- CEO Rob Parker has announced he’s stepping down earlier this year to retire creating uncertainty surrounding the future of leadership.
- The rise of National Insurance contributions by employers means the company’s expecting a further £4m in annual expenses as of April.
- Its recent acquisition of CTD Tiles in August 2024 was under investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority, causing regulatory uncertainty. This was later resolved favourably on 24 April.
Pairing all this with a relatively weak macroeconomic environment for the home renovation, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) market, it’s not so surprising the dividend stock is taking a tumble.
A buying opportunity?
On the surface, Topps Tiles’ situation isn’t great. But digging deeper does reveal some encouraging trends. In its latest interim trading update for the six months ending in March 2025, the company noted accelerating like-for-like sales over the two quarters.
At the same time, management’s investments in its digital sales channel seem to be bearing fruit, with online traffic quadrupling and online sales jumping 15%.
With interest rates steadily falling and economic conditions across the UK slowly improving, the domestic RMI market seems to be on the mend. That’s certainly a welcome tailwind to help bolster Topps Tiles cash flows and support the shareholder dividend.
Investors will get a clearer picture of the financials once the full set of half-year results are released later this month. With that in mind, it’s likely prudent to keep this business on a watch list until then.
If these results reveal a path to recovery with dividend sustainability, then thinking about the City analyst’s Buy recommendation might be lucrative, even if the shares don’t reach the ambitious target of 70p.