The housing market continues to test patience: inventory remains constrained in many regions, buyer and seller activity is starting to normalize and interest rates still shape consumer hesitation (but that may be changing!) By conventional measures, momentum feels limited.
Yet beneath those conditions, a different signal is emerging; one that may prove more predictive than housing market headlines alone.
According to the newly released 2026 Agent Confidence Index, real estate agents are not equating a difficult market with personal decline. Instead, the data reveals a widening gap between how agents assess current conditions and how they feel about their own ability to succeed. That divergence may be one of the industry’s most important indicators this year.
A ground-level view of agent sentiment
The Agent Confidence Index was created to answer a question rarely addressed directly in housing research: how confident do real estate agents feel about their business, skills and future?
Developed by Darryl Davis and his team, the index focuses on agent sentiment rather than external interpretation. It reflects responses from agents actively working with buyers and sellers, offering a field-level perspective that traditional market reports often miss.
A slower market not weaker agents
By most benchmarks, agents agree the market remains challenging. Nearly half of those surveyed described current market conditions as weak or very weak. More than 60% reported buyer activity below normal levels and just over half said seller activity was also below typical seasonal patterns.
These figures align with broader industry data and reinforce the perception of a market that is slower and more selective than in recent years.
Despite those conditions, agent confidence remains strikingly resilient. About 65% of agents report a positive outlook for their real estate career, and more than 86% expect to still be in business next year. Nearly two-thirds believe their income outlook is stable or improving.
The gap between cautious market sentiment and strong personal confidence indicates agents do not see the environment as broken. Instead, they see it as competitive.
Opportunity, in their view, has narrowed, not vanished.
Skill isn’t the concern
One of the clearest insights from the index is what is not driving agent anxiety. Despite a year shaped by legal settlements, heightened compensation scrutiny and new buyer representation requirements, agents report strong confidence in their professional abilities:
- More than 80% feel confident explaining compensation changes
- Nearly 87% feel confident using required forms correctly
- More than 86% feel confident advertising and representing property accurately
Professionalism and compliance are not where agents feel vulnerable.
The real constraint is access to opportunity
Where concerns do surface is in access to business. Across experience levels and business models, lack of qualified leads and limited inventory ranked as the top two business challenges. Those same issues were also cited as the top training priorities.
That alignment is telling. Agents are not asking for more rule explanations or technical instruction. They are seeking better systems to generate more opportunities in a tighter market.
A shift away from institutional dependence
The data also points to a broader shift in how agents view industry institutions. While satisfaction with MLS services remains moderate, more than 70% of agents said national association membership is not important to their business. Nearly one-third reported dissatisfaction with local association support.
This does not suggest disengagement from the profession. Instead, it reflects a growing reliance on personal expertise, local knowledge and direct client relationships.
Agents increasingly see themselves, not institutions, as the primary source of clarity and credibility for consumers navigating uncertainty.
Competition feels challenging, not overwhelming
Despite frequent discussion of agent saturation and attrition, most agents do not describe competition as unmanageable. Nearly half characterize it as challenging, but the majority say it is beatable. Few believe success hinges on brand size, pricing pressure or transaction volume.
Instead, agents who feel prepared point to clarity of value and consistency of prospecting as their competitive advantage. For brokers and team leaders planning out the next 12 months, the implication is clear: performance depends less on adding complexity and more on executing fundamentals well.
Technology and AI create a quiet divide
The index also highlights an emerging gap around technology and AI. Most agents believe these tools offer meaningful upside, but relatively few are using them consistently. For those who use these tools, the benefits are tangible, including time saved, faster follow-up, and more efficient communication.
Rather than replacing relationships, technology is quietly removing friction — everything in the process that slows an agent down, wears them out, or quietly steals their focus. In a slower market, efficiency becomes leverage.
What agents expect next
Agents are not predicting a dramatic rebound. Their outlook for 2026 is measured. They anticipate gradual improvement with modest rate relief, incremental inventory gains and continued strength in areas such as new construction and relocation.
That realism may be the healthiest signal of all. The profession is no longer waiting for ideal conditions. It is preparing to perform under imperfect ones.
The most important insight from the survey is straightforward:
The agents most likely to succeed this year are not waiting for the market to improve. They are building systems that work regardless of conditions.
The gap between market sentiment and agent confidence is not a form of denial. It reflects strategic positioning and may be the signal the industry should be watching most closely as the next cycle approaches.
Darryl Davis, CSP, has spoken to, trained, and coached more than 600,000 real estate professionals around the globe. He is a bestselling author for McGraw-Hill Publishing, and his book, How to Become a Power Agent in Real Estate, tops Amazon’s charts for most sold book to real estate agents.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
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