“Well-known landmarks will not be immune to the threats. A changing climate is already impacting us and, in future, it is likely we will need to learn to live with extreme weather. Adapting our properties and infrastructure is key.”
– Jason Storah – Aviva.
Millions of homes across the UK could face significant risks from climate change by 2050, including flooding, subsidence, and rising temperatures, according to a new report by insurer Aviva. The analysis highlights that well-known landmarks, as well as residential properties, may be increasingly exposed unless urgent action is taken.
Some of the UK’s iconic sites, including Cardiff Bay, York city centre, and Liverpool waterfront, could be vulnerable to flooding due to rising sea levels, heavier rainfall, and more frequent extreme weather. Even Edinburgh Castle, a hilltop landmark, could be at risk from surface water flooding if increased rainfall overwhelms drainage systems. Northern Ireland’s Giant’s Causeway is expected to face more coastal erosion and instability.
Rising temperatures could also threaten other attractions. The Red House in south London is already experiencing subsidence linked to clay soils, which expand and contract with wet and dry conditions. Ongoing maintenance will be necessary to protect its facades, and similar adaptations will be required across other properties to cope with future climate changes.
“In the UK, we have seen the impacts of our changing climate, and this year is no exception. Record temperatures, wildfires, and flash flooding have affected lives across the globe, and it is clear that action is needed to adapt to the increasing frequency of these events,” explained Jason Storah, CEO UK & Ireland general insurance at Aviva.
“Our Building Future Communities report lays bare the risks that homes and businesses could experience by 2050. The findings are stark. Millions more properties could be at risk from flooding, with rising temperatures, increased urbanisation, and inadequate drainage exacerbating the risks in future.
“Well-known landmarks will not be immune to the threats. A changing climate is already impacting us and, in future, it is likely we will need to learn to live with extreme weather. Adapting our properties and infrastructure is key.”
He added, “To make the UK climate-ready, we are calling for urgent, collective action to be taken to ensure we can mitigate the risks we will all face.”
Flooding risk set to rise
The report notes that the number of homes at risk of flooding in England is expected to rise by over a quarter (27%), from 6.3 million to 8 million. Coastal flooding could threaten 3.2 million homes, but surface water flooding, which is harder to predict, is also likely to increase. Environment Agency data suggests properties at risk could rise to 6.1 million between 2040 and 2060, including a 66% increase in homes considered high risk. Urban areas such as London, Manchester, and parts of the North East are predicted to be hotspots because hard surfaces prevent effective drainage.
Flood risks will also grow in Scotland and Wales. In Scotland, river and coastal flood exposure could rise by 80%, and the number of properties vulnerable to surface water flooding could more than double by 2080. In Wales, river and coastal flood risks could increase by 88%, with surface water risks rising by 47% by 2120.
Subsidence and heat threats
Subsidence is expected to worsen in parts of South East England, already prone to soil movement. By 2050, the risk could extend to parts of the Midlands, East of England, and South Wales, potentially affecting 1.4 million additional homes.
Temperature rises are projected to be most pronounced in southern England, with maximum annual temperatures possibly increasing by up to 3.5°C in some areas. Higher temperatures increase risks to health and can contribute to wildfires and lightning strikes.
Aviva’s resilience projects
Aviva has pledged more than £80 million to nature-based solutions that capture carbon, support flood resilience, and restore natural habitats. It was among the first insurers to participate in Flood Re’s Build Back Better scheme and has helped over 400 customers improve home resilience.
Here’s how residents can also take steps to improve the climate resilience of their homes:
For high flood risk properties: Raise electrical sockets in vulnerable areas, fit non-return valves on toilets, install flood gates and self-closing airbricks, and ensure gardens have adequate drainage and use permeable materials for hard surfaces.
For properties at risk of subsidence: Plant trees and large shrubs at a safe distance and prune regularly, prevent water pooling near foundations and keep drains clear, and consider a structural survey before renovations or extensions.
For overheating homes: Install internal or external shading such as blackout blinds, external shades, planting, or solar-reflective films.
Storah concluded, “Despite the findings in our report, it is not too late to act. There is excellent work already underway across the UK, with owners, guardians, communities, and councils working together to protect some of our most iconic places.
“There are solutions – big and small – which could help improve the UK’s climate-readiness if we take collaborative and urgent action. Continued investment in flood defences, preventing unprotected new homes in flood zones, encouraging low-cost property resilience measures, and attracting more investment in nature-based solutions will help mitigate the damage inflicted by a changing climate in future.
“By taking vital steps now, we can help safeguard millions of properties and protect important landmarks from climate impacts in the decades to come.”