Postpandemic vacancies and surging debt payments have eaten away at commercial real estate for more than two years. Even as those threats start to fade, owners of strip malls, apartment buildings and office towers face a problem that could last much longer: soaring insurance costs.
The problem is familiar to homeowners across the country. The rise in climate-related natural disasters has insurance companies pushing rates substantially higher, or pulling out of markets. The rate increases have been fastest in coastal cities and towns vulnerable to damage from big storms or coastal floods, but insurers and banks are coming to terms with the notion that no area is truly safe from increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather events.
Insurers could be on the hook for as much as $75 billion in damage from Hurricane Helene, which left a trail of deadly floods and landslides through Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas late last month, and Hurricane Milton, which landed near Tampa, Fla., less than two weeks later.
Building owners are also trapped between their insurers and lenders, who are afraid of being on the hook for catastrophic damage and won’t allow the smallest changes to policies — even those that might give a struggling borrower some breathing room.
It isn’t possible to know comprehensively how many properties have gone into foreclosure solely because of insurance costs, but people in the industry say they know of deals that have fallen apart over the matter. Developers and investors say that in an industry grappling with higher interest rates and materials and labor expenses, insurance costs can tip the scales.
“This current interest-rate environment has exposed the people that know what they’re doing and those that don’t,” said Mario Kilifarski, the head of asset management at Fundamental Advisors, a New York-based investor with $3.5 billion in assets.
The insurance brokerage Marsh McLennan estimated that premiums on commercial properties rose an average of 11 percent across the country last year but as much as 50 percent in storm-vulnerable places like the Gulf Coast and California. This year, premiums may have doubled in some of those places, the brokerage said.