- In this Gold vs Silver matchup, we look at the key fundamentals at play and the market outlook for the two metals in 2025.
In 2025 gold and silver have had notable outings, and with trade tariffs causing all sorts of jitters, both have had their turn in the headlines. But how do they really stack up against each other?
Gold
Gold price has been on roll this year, propelled by US economic policy uncertainties, high geopolitical tensions, and most recently reacting to rumours that U.S. Customs might slap hefty tariffs on imported gold bars. It has had a blend of stability and wild chaos that have nonetheless pushed it to record high levels this year.
However, it now finds itself at a crossroads, with the US President Donald Trump’s scheduled meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin coming just a few days after Trump stepped in via a post saying, “Gold will not be tariffed.” This threatens to take away the geopolitical premium on gold price at a time when trade tariff fuel is seemingly waning out.
Nonetheless, gold has been a standout performer among safe haven assets, rising by 27% year-to-date. Many analysts’ midpoint estimates forecast action around $3,065 for 2025.
Silver: Lagging Now, But Maybe Poised to Sprint
Silver hasn’t seen quite the same fireworks as gold. Nonetheless, it has posted modest gains, going up by around 10% year-to-date. The gray metal’s underperformance is primarily due to demand-side pressures, with industrial demand taking a hit as tariff-related pressures resulted in economic slowdowns.
Nonetheless, analysts argue silver’s story isn’t lacking potential, and is instead just waiting for the right moment to blow. That line of thought is reflected in the gold-to-silver ratio, which is at 87 as of this writing, and well above its long-term average of 40–60. The gold/silver ratio tells us the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy gold.
Therefore, a high ratio means you need more silver to buy gold. That infers that silver is potentially undervalued in the current market. Therefore, silver stands a good chance of rallying back harder in periods of recovery.
Tariffs’ Impact: Gold’s Flashpoint and Silver’s Muted Response
Tariffs have had a big say in gold price momentum this year. Trade tariffs created uncertainty that initially drove investors and central banks to safe haven gold. However, that momentum cooled down in the second quarter of the year as it became apparent that ultra-high US-reciprocal tariffs were primarily used by President Trump as a bargaining tool and he would always predictably announce lower “reciprocal” percentages once he got what he wanted. However, trade tariff negotiations between the US and key trading partners like India, Mexico, Canada and China are yet to be finalized, and that could provide support for gold price in the intervening period.
Silver price, however, barely budged even at the height of trade tariff FUD. The reason for that is that it isn’t as tightly held as a safe haven asset as gold, and its demand is more industrial. While trade tariff swings often add some uncertainty, but it has failed to generate the same big-time price shocks.
Looking Ahead: How Could This Play Out?
Looking ahead, these three factors are likely to hold the greatest sway in the gold vs silver battle:
1. Trade Tariff Sentiment
Another panic about tariffs or a political spark might send gold prices through the roof again. That could especially come in to play in the medium-term as Israel plans a full-scale ground-based military action in Gaza and President Trump tries to talk President Putin out of the war against Ukraine. The impact on silver will likely be minimal.
2. Industrial demand
There are many nuances to the industrial demand’s effect on silver. As of now, trade tariffs are the most preeminent disruptor to the global economy, and continued uncertainty around them could result in reduced industrial demand for silver.
The future of silver depends on the global uptake of solar power, electronics, and maybe even AI. While AI is growing exponentially, its uptake of silver is yet to pick up. Also, trade tariffs have adversely impacted electronics markets. Therefore, silver price could blow up if those sectors gather a stronger growth momentum. That being said, silver is more volatile than gold. Its price swift lot depending on the economy and how much industry needs it. That makes it less attractive to many investors looking for safe haven cushion.
3. Gold-to-Silver Ratio
If the gold-to-silver ratio starts to get smaller, it will likely signal the onset of a stronger performance by silver. Therefore, watch out because that is when silver has typically taken center stage in the past.
Gold/silver ratio on a daily chart
Gold Price Prediction
Gold price will likely stay on the ascending trajectory if action remains above its $3,270 pivot. Near-term resistance will likely be at $3,500, but a stronger demand could elevate it to test $3,600.
However, look out for XAUUSD action below $3,270, as it could swing the momentum to the downside and push gold price to the primary support at the psychological $3000 and potentially $2,610 in extension.
Silver Price Prediction
Silver price will likely pivot at $40, and the buyers are likely to meet the first hurdle at $. Action above that level could set in motion a stronger propulsion to potentially test $45.
The downside will likely have primary support at $29 and potentially $22 in extension. A break below that level will signal a potential FUD sentiment with a prolonged action below $20.
In Summary
In conclusion, gold price is likely to stay on a general growth path thanks to its stronger safe haven status relative to silver. Worries about the economy, inflation, and demand from central banks will likely keep demand stable. Silver’s performance will depend on how well it is absorbed by industries and its perceived worth as a precious metal. While trade tariffs could make it harder for industries to buy metals, the overall state of world politics could potentially help both metals.
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