Gold has been on quite the bull run, up 26 percent in 2024 and another 27 percent so far this year. This impressive run occurred despite American investors largely remaining on the sidelines.
Money Metals CEO Stefan Gleason has watched this dynamic play out firsthand. He recently appeared on Investing News with Charlotte McLeod to discuss recent trends in the gold market from his perspective as the head of one of the largest online precious metal dealers in America.
Gleason said that despite the fact gold has consolidated and traded sideways since hitting a record high of $3,500 an ounce in April, he thinks we are still “very early in what will be a very exciting long-term bull run in gold.”
He specifically noted the lack of investor participation in the U.S. and other Western countries, calling the last two to three years a “sleeper period” in terms of Western gold demand.
“In fact, we, at least on the retail side, and as Money Metals is one of the largest online precious metal dealers in America, we saw more demand on the retail side during COVID, which was before gold and silver really started taking off and broke above $2,000 like it did about two years ago. But since then, since that breakout, we’ve actually seen very little participation from the U.S. retail investor, and even at the institutional level, only in the last few months that we started to see net inflows into the ETFs.”
Gleason emphasized that so far, these investors have missed the boat.
“As far as the west is concerned, it’s been sitting out, it’s been sitting out on this massive run in gold that’s taken us from $2,000 to almost $3,500 an ounce.”
The demand data backs up Gleason’s assertion.
Bar and coin demand was up by 11 percent in H1 2025, rising to 582 tonnes, with Chinese and Indian investors leading the way.
Chinese bar and coin demand grew by 44 percent year-on-year in H1. Chinese investors snapped up 115 tonnes of gold bars and coins in the second quarter alone. It was the strongest H1 for physical gold buying since 2013.
Meanwhile, Americans continued to sell their gold. Year-on-year bar and coin sales plummeted by 53 percent in H1. Demand in the second quarter was only 9 tonnes, the lowest quarterly level since Q4 2019.
According to the World Gold Council, “U.S. net investor demand was again affected by a double whammy of elevated profit taking and subdued levels of new purchases.”
Gleason said he’s noticed an increase in selling here in the U.S.
“We’ve seen an increase in selling, more than what we have historically seen, from retail investors who’ve been sitting on gold for a long time. Many people are monetizing those gains and taking cash. I don’t think that’s necessarily a good idea for the long term, but we’re seeing that happen. We’re seeing a little less buying and we’re seeing more selling.”
Why have Western investors been reluctant to wade into this gold bull market? Gleason said they have primarily been focused on other assets, such as stocks.
“Gold has had a lot of competitors for Western investors, whether it’s been crypto, the stock market itself, other assets. Obviously, the bond market has struggled a little bit, but the stocks have done just fine. And so, I don’t think people are really feeling the impetus in the West to buy gold and silver.”
Gleason pointed out that Asian investment and central bank gold buying have supported the gold rally so far. The entrance of Western investors into the market would likely spur another significant leg-up in the gold price because “a big part of potential demand is in the West.”
“Asia is still very strong. If the West kicks in while those things are ongoing in the East, and with central banks, then I think we see a very, very exciting further advance in gold prices. And I do think that that will be happening over the next year or two, but obviously we’re in a big sideways move here in the last few months.”
What will it take to bring Western investors to the table?
Gleason said it will likely require a significant stock market dip.
“I think the stock market continuing to be elevated and doing well is probably the biggest factor in why investors are not coming into gold in droves like they are in other parts of the world. So, I think there’s still a love affair with paper assets in the West. I think that people are very comfortable with that, and frankly, they haven’t been penalized for owning them. Stocks have done quite well, at least in nominal terms, and I think we’re going to need to see that reverse. And when that does, that’s when I think we see the U.S. demand pick up big time in gold and silver.”
He added that he also thinks another galloping move upward in the gold price could create some “fear of missing out” momentum.
In the meantime, Gleason said this is a great time for American investors to get in on the action early. While prices are elevated, premiums are relatively low, meaning there are good deals to be had.
“Pretty much everything is lower in terms of premiums, and that’s the amount that you pay above the spot price to buy any kind of physical form of gold or silver, whether it be a bar or a coin. So American Eagle coins have come way down. You can acquire those very close to spot now. They were $200 over spot, not too long ago. Really, the most efficient way would be like a 1-ounce gold bar, a 10-ounce, a 5-ounce gold bar, a kilo bar. These are available at very low premiums to spot, and frankly, probably the lowest… certainly the lowest premiums we’ve seen in about six years over spot, especially in percentage terms. And that’s again, that’s a reflection of lower retail demand, which is also manifested in more people selling, which has caused the premium structure to fall because not only there’s more secondary market inventory.”
Gleason said Fed rate cuts would also be bullish for gold because it could drive real interest rates negative.
“If they start cutting, which I expect them to do this fall and probably half a point by the end of the year, I think that that kind of environment, and especially if it continues, leads to more steeply negative real rates, and that is a very bullish condition for gold.”
Couple Fed easing with a stock market rollover, then you’ll have even stronger momentum turning toward gold.
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