Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B; NYSE: TECK) has revised down its copper production forecasts for the next two years following ongoing operational challenges at its Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in Chile and Highland Valley Copper (HVC) operation in British Columbia. The update comes as the company moves forward with a planned $53-billion merger with Anglo American (LON: AAL), which has reiterated its full support for Teck’s revised outlook and strategy.
Teck reported third-quarter copper output of 39,600 tonnes and sales of 43,900 tonnes from the QB mine. The Vancouver-based miner said it now expects total copper production from QB in 2025 to range between 170,000 and 190,000 tonnes, down from its previous estimate of 210,000–230,000 tonnes. The company attributed the downgrade to extended downtime needed to raise the tailings dam crest at the operation’s tailings management facility (TMF).
Production guidance for 2026 has also been cut sharply to between 200,000 and 235,000 tonnes, compared to the earlier forecast of 280,000–310,000 tonnes. Teck said TMF development will continue to limit production and will lead to additional concentrator downtime through 2025, particularly in the third quarter.
Higher operating costs are expected to accompany the lower output. Teck now projects net cash unit costs in 2025 to fall between $2.65 and $3.00 per pound, up from the previous $2.25–$2.45 range. The company anticipates costs will ease slightly in 2026 to between $2.25 and $2.70 per pound as production stabilizes.
Teck warned that ongoing optimization work at QB—intended to boost throughput by 5–10%—will be delayed beyond 2027–2028, again citing continued TMF construction and downtime during 2026. The miner also cautioned that if improvements to sand drainage or TMF progress do not meet expectations, copper output could face further disruptions in 2026 and 2027.
Despite these setbacks, Teck’s stock moved higher following the announcement, rising 0.6% in Toronto to C$59.99 and 1.6% in New York to $43.12 per share. The company’s market capitalization now stands at about $21 billion.
The QB mine has been a cornerstone of Teck’s long-term growth strategy but has faced persistent challenges since its major expansion project began. The development has run more than 80% over budget and several years behind schedule, with issues including pit and plant instability, waste storage complications, and a ship-loader failure contributing to repeated delays.
In Canada, Teck also reduced its 2025 copper production guidance for the Highland Valley Copper mine to 120,000–130,000 tonnes from an earlier range of 135,000–150,000 tonnes. The company attributed the adjustment to lower ore grades and planned maintenance activities. Production from other operations is expected to remain in line with prior estimates. Anglo American, Teck’s merger partner, said it “fully supported” the revised guidance, emphasizing that the changes align with findings from its own operational review. The London-based miner reaffirmed that the merger’s strategic rationale and expected benefits remain unchanged.
Anglo described Teck’s more gradual ramp-up approach at QB as a “proven method,” drawing parallels to its experience in addressing similar challenges during the commissioning of its Quellaveco copper mine in Peru. The company also noted that combining QB with its nearby Collahuasi operation could yield substantial operational and financial synergies. Teck maintains that QB’s underlying performance potential remains strong, saying the mine can operate at design capacity and achieve copper recovery rates of 86% to 92% when not constrained by TMF limitations. Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Price said the updated production plan reflects “realistic performance assumptions and risk assessments,” adding that the focus remains on safe, sustainable, and efficient operations.
Anglo American reiterated that the merger is expected to generate an average annual EBITDA uplift of $1.4 billion through integration of the QB and Collahuasi assets, alongside $800 million in recurring synergies. The companies said the combination will create a more resilient and globally competitive copper producer at a time when the energy transition continues to drive long-term demand for the metal.