09/30 update below. This post was originally published on September 29
Bitcoin and crypto prices have bounced back after dropping sharply earlier this month amid fears of a Federal Reserve flip.
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The bitcoin price has climbed back over $112,000 per bitcoin after dropping under $109,000 last week as a Wall Street bombshell hurtles toward the crypto market.
Now, as the Fed is predicted to put bitcoin on an equal footing with gold, influential bitcoin developer Samson Mow has predicted the U.S. bitcoin reserve will unleash “massive” nation-state “panic” as they rush to catch up.
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The bitcoin price has almost doubled over the last year, helped by Wall Street adoption and U.S. president Donald Trump’s embrace of bitcoin and crypto.
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“I think it is simply a matter of time before we see a massive run-up, and we see a massive nation-state FOMO, you know, panic,” Mow, who left bitcoin developer Blockstream in 2022 to focus on “nation-state bitcoin adoption” and advised El Salvador on its bitcoin strategy, told What Bitcoin Did podcast.
“These things happen very quickly,” Mow, the chief executive of Jan3 who launched the Aqua bitcoin wallet in early 2024, said. “I think we’re on the tail end of gradually, and we’re at the beginning phases of suddenly.”
09/30 update: The bitcoin price has added almost 5% since hitting weekend lows of around $108,000 per bitcoin, climbing alongside the price of gold which has surged as a U.S. federal goverment shutdown seems inevitable.
Odds on the crypto-powered prediction platform Polymarket have surged above 80% chance in 2025, with traders putting an 78% chance of a shutdown by Wednesday.
Alongside the surging bitcoin price and gold, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure, with its 10% collapse so far this year putting it on track for its worst year since 1973.
“Shocking stat of the day: The U.S. dollar is now on track for its [worst] year since 1973, down over 10% year-to-date,” analysts with the The Kobeissi Letter posted to X and pointing to further expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as potentially sending the bitcoin price and gold higher still.
“Since 2000, the U.S. dollar has lost over 40% of its purchasing power. All as the Fed cuts rates into 2.9%+ Core PCE inflation for the first time in 30+ years. Gold and bitcoin know what’s coming next.”
Bitcoin and crypto traders are predicting a strong end to the year, with many bitcoin price bulls hoping the market will mirror last year’s surge following a similar Fed interest rate cut in September 2024 and hailing October as “Uptober.”
“I believe bitcoin stands at a crossroads of strong growth opportunities and risks that cannot be ignored,” Rania Gule, a market analyst at XS.com, said in emailed comments.
“The anticipated volatility over the next two weeks may present opportunities for investors who can read the market well, but it also warns against chasing rallies without disciplined risk management strategies. Uptober may indeed bring historic gains, but the success of these expectations will depend on a combination of technical factors, institutional flows, and a calm U.S. political landscape. Until this picture becomes clearer, cautious optimism remains the most prudent approach for anyone watching the next move of [bitcoin].”
Earlier this year, Wall Street giant Fidelity predicted that “more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries will look to establish strategic positions in bitcoin,” while just last week, analysts with Wall Street giant Deutsche Bank said bitcoin could be put on equal footing with gold on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet by 2030.
In March, U.S. president Donald Trump followed through with his campaign promise to create a bitcoin strategic reserve, with U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent confirming last month that the Trump administration is committed to finding budget-neutral ways of creating it.
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The bitcoin price rally has stalled this year, though some think it has merely been delayed.
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However, Mow added he was surprised the bitcoin price rally this year has stalled, with bitcoin rocketing above $100,000 following U.S. president Donald Trump’s election victory in November last year but failing to make gains much above that through 2025.
“We should have had a bull run already,” Mow said, “like a massive run up. I think this cycle, if you want to call it a cycle, is delayed; it might push into next year.”
For now, the struggling bitcoin price has divided analysts who are increasingly fearful the latest bull market could have already come to an end.
“In the one camp are people like myself, who are forecasting higher prices in to year end,” John Glover, chief investment officer of Ledn, said in emailed comments, adding his personal forecast is for bitcoin to trade up to $140,000 to 145,000 though a subsequent bear market could begin imminently.
“In the other camp are those who feel that the bull cycle which began back in November 2023 has come to an end as it hit their target of $125,000. Right now the price action suggests that they are winning this debate.”