Olympic men’s basketball gold medal odds, predictions for Paris 2024

The U.S. men’s basketball team has appeared more vulnerable than anyone expected during the exhibition phase of their prep for the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Despite going 5-0, they stared defeat in the face several times against teams they were heavy favorites to beat.

Is it cause for concern? Oddsmakers don’t seem to think so. The U.S. is still a -650 favorite to win gold, which is better than where they opened, and exactly where they were after the U.S. blew out Serbia — before they went down to the wire with South Sudan and Germany.

The small margins of victory do, however, imply there’s at least a chance the U.S. could suffer an upset. That puts some incredible value on the field, with every other team sitting at 10-1 odds or longer.

2024 Paris Olympics men’s basketball odds (BetMGM)

• USA (-650)
• Canada (+1000)
• France (+1100)
• Serbia (+1400)
• Germany (+2000)
• Greece (+2200)
• Australia (+3300)
• Spain (+6600)
• Brazil (+15000)
• Japan (+25000)
• Puerto Rico (+30000)
• South Sudan (+50000)

Ironically, one of the best bets to usurp Team USA as the back-to-back-to-back-to-back Olympic champion is the one team the U.S. did manage to blow out in exhibitions, Serbia.

At 14-1, Serbia has the fourth-best odds to win gold in Paris, and it certainly helps that they have maybe the world’s best player, Nikola Jokic, on the squad. But really, this pick comes down to Serbia being placed in Group C alongside the U.S.

By the time these teams potentially play in the knockout stage, Serbia will likely have seen the U.S. more than any other team. While it’s possible that works against them, it could also be a major advantage if Serbia again struggles against the U.S. in the group stage. It’s hard to dominate a team three times in a row.

Not to mention, any potential knockout meeting between the U.S. and Serbia would be in a later round because teams from the same group can’t meet in the quarterfinals.

My other best bet would be whichever team wins Group B,  likely between favorite France (-225) or Germany (+180). And though Germany has appeared incredibly formidable in exhibitions, I would roll with France to secure that group and one of the top group records to avoid the U.S. until a potential meeting in the gold medal game.

Having to play somebody you can’t prepare for like Victor Wembanyama for the first time with gold on the line would be a tall task for Team USA. It would still be a massive letdown for the U.S. to lose that game, but it wouldn’t be impossible.