Nate Silver, the statistical guru behind FiveThirtyEight’s polling engine, said that his “gut” prediction for the 2024 election is that former President Donald Trump will win.
Silver wrote in the New York Times on Wednesday, whose predictions have followed political course for over a decade, revealing what his instincts tell him about this year’s race.
After explaining the “unsatisfying” numbers forecast – that Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump are polling within a percentage point – he delivered the take people press him on: “What’s your gut say?”
“So OK, I’ll tell you,” Silver wrote. “My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”
His “gut” prediction, however, came with a warning: “But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine.”
He continued: “Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
Silver then detailed how his caution in making a call stems from the razor-thin margins in the seven battleground states, where polling suggests the race is too close to call: “50-50 is the only responsible forecast.”
He pointed out that polls have been wrong in both directions before: “It could be equally wrong for Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
Silver also addressed the notion of what he called “shy Trump voters” — a theory suggesting some Trump supporters don’t admit their preferences in polls. However, he added, “there’s not much evidence for the shy-voter theory,” noting that “nonresponse bias” — the challenge of reaching Trump voters in surveys — is likely a bigger issue.
The pollster’s analysis wasn’t all bad news for Democrats. He reminded readers that polls often miss by three or four points, which could tilt in either direction. A polling miss in Harris’s favor, he noted, could result in “the largest margin in both the popular vote and the Electoral College since Mr. [Barack] Obama in 2008.”
Silver concluded: “Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards.”
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