Labor and Demand Show Signs of Cooling
Recent labor market data highlighted the shifting balance. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, beating forecasts but marking a slower pace of hiring. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, while average hourly earnings increased just 0.1% month on month, easing wage pressure.
Consumer demand also softened. US retail sales were flat in October, undershooting expectations and following a downward revision to September’s data. Together, the figures suggest that economic momentum is cooling without collapsing, a backdrop that strengthens the case for policy flexibility.
Inflation Data Takes Center Stage
Attention now turns to inflation indicators, with the Consumer Price Index due Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index on Friday. These releases will shape expectations for further policy moves. Fed funds futures imply a 75.6% probability of rates holding steady at the January meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.
Why Silver Is Tracking Gold
Silver has moved in tandem with gold, supported by its role as both a monetary asset and an industrial input. Expectations of looser financial conditions support investment demand, while slower growth keeps risk appetite cautious. With inflation still under review and policy uncertainty elevated, fundamentals continue to favor gold and silver over yield-sensitive assets.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold holds above $4,300, targeting $4,350–$4,390 short term, while silver near $66.20 eyes $66.90–$68.50 as momentum stays positive; dips toward $4,260 and $64.60 may attract buyers on pullbacks ahead week.