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    Home»Precious Metal»gold: Why Peter McGuire is predicting a bullish run for precious metals
    Precious Metal

    gold: Why Peter McGuire is predicting a bullish run for precious metals

    August 22, 20245 Mins Read


    “Silver is a very hot market to follow and I think that and gold is going to be the place to be over the next couple of months,” says Peter McGuire, Chief Executive Officer, XM Australia.

    Just ahead of the Jackson Hole Summit, a few of those minutes from the US Fed were fairly dovish and I think that is the reason dollar had taken quite a bit of tumble. It is what, at a one-year low already? Where do you see it headed next?
    Peter McGuire: I tell you what, it has had a big sell-off as you have seen over the last couple of days and it is edging very close to that 101 sort of flat number. I would not be surprised that it actually hits into the 100s. So, it was a 102.50 and then all of a sudden all the hot air just came straight out of it. Now, I think it is just in a little bit of a freefall. So, I am expecting further softness maybe over the next 24 to 36 hours.But it is having an impact, of course, towards other metals and commodities as well. Case in point being crude from that $80, which had become the benchmark of sorts for a longish period. Now, it is down to $76.
    Peter McGuire: Well, I know it has had a very solid sell-off and I mean, it has been a great market to short and that has been very enjoyed from a trading perspective. You have seen fairly weak demand if you are looking at the global picture, Eurozone certainly with China looking at the likes of the US.

    So, all of that taken into consideration, even with those revised job numbers there, that is quite damning. So, I would not be surprised for WTI to probably, maybe a top, maybe a 69. I mean, it is sitting at the moment at 71.70 and you have got just under 76 for Brent, maybe there are a couple of dollars to be actually taken out of it yet.

    Let us talk about gold and silver. I think we have spoken previously also how silver is also picking up that pace and seeing that run up in momentum every time there is anything you see silver shining equally as gold is. Is that something you see continuing and do you think silver too is becoming one of those bets when everyone goes to more of the safe haven side like gold was?
    Peter McGuire: Absolutely, and I will tell you what, when you are looking at that, this is just for all the traders out there and something that everyone needs to be mindful of, the gold to silver ratio. Looking at the moment, it is 85 to 1, roughly. You are just under $30 for an ounce of silver and you are nearly at $2550 for an ounce of gold. So, you just do the math and it is about 85. I would not be surprised for that to narrow over time leading into the end of the year and I feel as though that there is movement up there for as far as silver to take another upward leg and I would not be surprised if it is significant. So, silver is a very hot market to follow and I think that and gold is going to be the place to be over the next couple of months.

    But what else are you witnessing right now? Any interesting spaces with industrial metals, agri commodities, anything else that deserves mention?
    Peter McGuire: Well, if you are looking at, I have got to keep an eye on copper. I mean, it is at 9200, nearly 9260. It has been very-very wild in the sense of volatility. It was down at that 8800, now it has bounced back. It has been a one-way ticket as far as iron ore prices, they just seem to be having all the hot air kicked out of those. Keeping a close eye on tin as well. And I think aluminium, there might be a little bit of move to the upside, but for copper it has to go on another leg up for that to be materialised and at the moment I am not sure whether you are going to see anything across that base metal sector that is really going to stimulate from a trading perspective opportunity to profit from it.

    So, let us see whether we are able to kind of profit from that opportunity or not. But clearly, a lot of action I think that you are in midst off and clearly commodities right now is a lot more heated up than equities are?
    Peter McGuire: Well, I think so, but you cannot take your eye off. I mean, when you are looking at it, the US stock market nearly at all-time high, the NASDAQ, Dow, S&P, I mean S&P would only be a half a percent from an all-time high, so it had a nice leg up overnight, 0.42. I think that the US equities, let us just see what happens as far as Jackson Hole and are they going to cut 25 or 50 basis points. I am erring on the side of probably going out there on a limb, but I think it is more going to be 50 than 25 and how that positions itself over the rest of September, naturally leading in October. So, yes, it could be a, for every trader out there, be mindful as far as hedging positions. I think that is very important.



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