Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The gold price is set to extend its historic rally to hit fresh highs in 2026, although analysts expect the metal’s advance to slow after a year of stunning gains, according to a Financial Times survey.
The price of bullion, which soared 64 per cent in 2025, will rise by nearly 7 per cent to reach $4,610 per troy ounce by the end of this year, according to the average forecast of 11 analysts.
Many of the factors behind bullion’s blistering rally in 2025 are expected to remain intact this year, said analysts, including buying by emerging market central banks and investor demand for haven assets.
The most bullish prediction was for $5,400 per troy ounce — implying a gain of 25 per cent — from Nicky Shiels of refinery MKS Pamp, who said other analysts’ estimates had been “persistently too timid” in recent years.
“We are only in the early innings of the debasement cycle,” she said, a reference to how some investors are shifting assets into gold as a hedge against the US dollar, which weakened sharply last year.
Gold hit a record high of just under $4,550 per troy ounce in intraday trading on Dec 26, propelled in part by the US blockade of Venezuela. It has since fallen back slightly, amid a volatile end to year for precious metal prices.
With many analysts’ attributing gold’s rise to investor flows, Lina Thomas of Goldman Sachs said there was “significant upside” to her forecast of $4,900 for the end of the year “in a scenario where there’s additional investor diversification”.
She added that investors’ allocations to gold remained low and estimated that for every 0.01 percentage point by which US investors increase their portfolios’ allocation to bullion, the price would rise by around 1.4 per cent.
Investors and analysts largely failed to foresee the ferocity of last year’s rally, on average predicting a price of $2,795 by the end of 2025, compared with the $4,314 at which it closed the year. The survey reveals a large divergence between the most bearish and most bullish calls, with $1,900 separating the highest and lowest forecasts.
The gold price is becoming “harder to predict”, said Peter Taylor, head of commodity strategy at Macquarie Group, because it has been driven largely by investor sentiment and has become disconnected from supply and demand fundamentals.
Taylor, whose forecast of $4,200 for the fourth quarter of 2026 — implying a small fall over the course of the year — is among the most bearish, added he expects “we will see more macro news stability.”
Other bullish analysts point to central bank buying as a key booster for prices. Natasha Kaneva of JPMorgan expects central bank purchases of around 755 tonnes during 2026. Although slightly lower than previous years, that could still push prices towards $6,000 by 2028, she said.
At the same time, a number of analysts are taking the view that gold could fall this year.
The most bearish forecast comes from Rhona O’Connell at StoneX, who said prices could drop to $3,500 in a market that is becoming “overcrowded”.
“The majority of the tailwinds for the price have already been taken on board,” said O’Connell. “My feeling is that, barring a black swan event, there probably is not another wave of this investment to come.”
She highlighted the upcoming court decision on Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, who is contesting efforts by President Donald Trump to fire her, as a potential driver of the price in the near term. A ruling in favour of Cook, which would be viewed as supportive of the central bank’s independence, could weigh on gold, she said.
Natixis’s Bernard Dahdah pointed to bearish factors such as declining jewellery demand and the eventual end of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle, which is expected next year. He forecasts gold prices will average $4,200 during the fourth quarter of this year.
“At current price levels, we are already seeing signs of demand destruction within the jewellery sector, and central bank demand has also slowed down,” he said. “We think 2026 will be a year of price consolidation.”