Stock image.
Shares of gold miners are soaring in the early months of 2025, as risks around inflation and geopolitics push analysts to ramp up their outlook for the precious metal, a classic haven asset.
The roughly $14 billion VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up around 20% this year, with all but four stocks in the 56-member fund rising. The price of gold, by contrast, is up 12%, while the S&P 500 has gained around 1.7%. That dynamic marks a change from recent years, when shares of miners typically trailed the gold price.
One driver for that outperformance may be buying from investors looking for other ways to tap into gold’s relentless surge. Gold, a popular hedge against inflation and political turmoil, hit another all-time high on Monday.
“From 2014 till now, gold equities have underperformed pretty drastically,” said Steven Schoffstall, director of ETF product management at Sprott Asset Management. “We do think that there is a sustained period here for gold and silver.”
Returns on some individual names are outstripping the ETF’s performance: Shares of miner Newmont Corp. are up 18%, making it the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 Materials Index so far in 2025. Canada’s SSR Mining Inc. is up roughly 50%, and precious metals stocks make up the bulk of top-performing equities on the TSX Composite Index.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs lifted their price target on gold to $3,100 last week, around 5% above the current level, citing factors including massive buying by global central banks. Among these is the People’s Bank of China, which expanded its gold reserves for a third month in January. Central banks have roughly doubled their purchases of gold since the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Bill Peterson wrote earlier this month that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China reinforce the bank’s bullish view on gold given possible disruptions from the trade war. Fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Corp. expect gold to be the second-best performing asset in 2025, after international equities.
US consumers’ long-term inflation expectations rose to the highest level in almost three decades on concerns that tariffs will translate into higher prices.
New ETFs
Appetite for the gold-linked stocks is sparking the launch of new exchange-traded funds as investors look for more investing options in the space. Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management LP debuted an actively managed gold and silver miners ETF last week and has so far seen a sharp pickup in retail traders. It follows the launch of a passively managed silver miners ETF, which debuted in January.
Of course, appetite for the metal could take a hit if US inflation shows signs of returning to a cooling path, undercutting the case for a hedge against rising prices. A cessation of hostilities in Ukraine or US tariffs that ultimately prove less severe than expected could also weigh on the gold price.
Still, proponents of gold and silver stocks note that many remain cheap compared to the broader market, despite their recent rally.
Newmont, the largest North American gold miner, trades at roughly 13 times its earnings, while rival Barrick Gold Corp. trades at 8.8 times earnings. Both are well-below the average 27 times for the S&P 500.
“Most investors could benefit from physical gold or precious metals equities — the sector is under-represented within portfolios,” Schoffstall said.
(By Geoffrey Morgan)