Gold is likely to remain range bound but silver looks a bit vulnerable to a cool-off before resuming its long-term uptrend.
Practically, there was nothing about precious metals in July. Both gold and silver were stuck in a range and the price action was devoid of any meaningful trend.
The strengthening of the US dollar played a key role in keeping the precious metals’ prices in check. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the interest rates unchanged is another factor that could act as a dampener for the sentiment towards precious metals.
Comex gold closed almost unchanged at $3,342.3 at the end of July, representing a 0.82 per cent gain. The performance of Comex silver was relatively more volatile with the white metal scaling a new 52-week high of $39.9 on July 23 before easing to $36.79 by the end of July. This represents a 1.3 per cent gain on a month-on-month basis.
Mirroring the trend in the global markets, the MCX gold price closed 1.9 per cent higher to settle at ₹98,778 per 10-gram at the end of July. MCX silver posted a much better performance, recording a 3.5 per cent gain in July to settle at ₹1,09,998 per kilogram.
Contraction in volatility
Comex gold price is still unable to get out of the broad range of $3,120-$3,450. Only a breakout from this zone would set the tone for the next big move. The recent price action suggests progressive contraction in volatility in the price action. This typically is a forewarning to a big trending move ahead. A breach of the upper or lower end of the above range will trigger the next big move in gold.
As observed in prior months, Comex silver price gathered some traction after it moved above the upper end of the prior range at $34.5. The price also reached the target zone of $39.5-$40.5 mentioned last month. Silver is in a short-term pullback after the recent rally. This cool off from overbought zone is likely to persist in the near term. The long-term uptrend will resume once the ongoing pullback is complete. A move above $38.5 would suggest resumption of the uptrend. MCX gold price is still confined within the broad range of ₹91,000-₹1,01,000. A breakout from this range would trigger a strong move in the direction of the breakout.
Gold’s next target
As observed last month, above ₹1,02,000, the price can head to next target zone of ₹1,08,000-₹1,10,000. MCX silver price gathered momentum in the first half of July and the price reached the target zone of ₹1,16,500-₹1,18,500 mentioned last month. MCX silver could stay sluggish in the short-term and drop to ₹1,01,500-₹1,02,500 appears likely.
To summarise, gold is likely to remain range bound but silver looks a bit vulnerable to a cool-off before resuming its long-term uptrend.
(The author is a Chennai based analyst / trader. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice.)
Published on August 4, 2025