Gold is considered a high safe haven asset and remains popular with investors. This is reflected in the continuing upward trajectory of gold prices. However, these prices may be volatile due to current policies, particularly regarding import tariffs.
Speaking with Krungthepturakij, various experts offered their insights on the outlook for gold prices in 2025, amid global economic uncertainty. A consensus emerged, suggesting the possibility of gold reaching $3,000 per ounce in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing the previous all-time high of $2,799 per ounce.
Jitti Tangsitpakdee, president of the Gold Traders Association of Thailand, noted the ongoing volatility in the global gold market but highlighted the potential for a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2025, driven by current policies and the trade war. He suggested these factors could lead to economic “recession” coupled with rising “inflation,” making gold a particularly attractive safe-haven asset.
He cautioned that while global gold prices may break records, the strength of the Thai baht could moderate price increases for Thai gold. He pointed out that the baht has already strengthened considerably.
Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, chairman of MTS Gold Group, echoed the view that gold investment remains volatile, potentially limiting price increases in the near term due to the US Federal Reserve’s current interest rate policy.
However, he predicted stronger growth in the second half of 2025, in the region of 10-20%, compared to a more modest 4-5% in the first half. He explained that prices were likely to fluctuate in response to prevailing policies.
“It is expected that the interest rate will be adjusted up in June 2025, while in the second quarter of 2025, it is expected that the price will gradually adjust up from the prevailing situation, because it is a period where we will see whether certain policies will be enacted or not, which will lead to a big adjustment in the price of gold with the dollar exchange rate,” Kritcharat said.
He added that while gold could reach a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2025, the rise may not be dramatic. Given daily price swings of around $20, significant volatility remains a distinct possibility.
Kritcharat also noted the influence of the baht exchange rate on the price of Thai gold, stating that historically, both Thai and global gold prices have moved in tandem, offering similar returns. However, he acknowledged that Thai gold often experiences slower initial growth due to the strengthening baht, before catching up when the currency weakens.
Thanarat Pasawong, CEO of Huang Seng Heng Group, highlighted the potential for “volatility” and “uncertainty” in global gold prices during the first half of 2025. He explained that various policy decisions were still being rolled out, requiring careful monitoring.
He added that announced tax reductions could lead to a decline in US revenue, which could be followed by taxation of other nations’ holdings – a development the market is watching closely. He further suggested that potential declines in borrowing costs or a weakening dollar later in the year could positively influence gold prices.
Thanarat cautioned that initial economic stimulus measures could strengthen the dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices in the short term. He also mentioned the potential influence of Chinese New Year demand and subsequent price corrections.
He advised a long-term investment approach, forecasting a gold price range of $2,500-$3,000 for the year, subject to fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
He concluded that Thai gold continues to benefit from the potential weakening of the baht due to the country’s ongoing economic recovery. He suggested that any reduction in domestic interest rates would likely weaken the baht, driving domestic gold prices upwards.