In an unpredictable global economy, where inflation fears, geopolitical tensions, and shifting financial policies dominate the news, gold’s timeless allure is once again in the spotlight in Q1 2025.
Since the beginning of 2025, the precious metal has been on an upward trend continuing to break every record.
The World Gold Council says gold’s massive price jump from US$2,500 per troy ounce to US$3,000 per ounce took just 210 days — which is a notably faster move that emphasises the momentum gold has built over the last two years.
During 2024, the yellow metal set 40 new all-time highs, and repeated that feat 14 more times before the end of March 2025, as reported by the World Gold Council.
In Australian dollar terms, gold also surpassed several records this past quarter, with the precious metal’s price sitting at around $4,236 on 7 January 2025, before climbing to around $4,500 per ounce at the end of January.
Within a week, the yellow metal had climbed to over $4,542 per ounce, as investors flocked to the safe haven asset over elevated concerns of a global trade war.
As of 4pm AEDT on 31 March 2025, the gold price sat at $4,972.98 per ounce. Gold then achieved another all-time high, reaching $5,041.50 per ounce as of 1:30pm AEDT on 1 April.
While gold continues to outshine every record price, it poses the question of could 2025 be the year of gold?
Trends, drivers, and movements
Throughout Q1 2025, gold continued to assert its role as a safe haven asset, with market sentiment remaining strong, and potentially pointing to further growth still to come.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Alice Queen (ASX:AQX) Managing Director Andrew Buxton says the gold market sentiment is “strong” and can become “stronger” due to the uncertainty in global financial markets.
“The volatility we have seen more broadly on global markets in recent weeks has cemented gold’s traditional position as a safe haven for investments and pushed its value above US$3,000 per ounce,” Buxton says.
Pacgold (ASX:PGO) Managing Director Matt Boyes shares a similarly bullish outlook, stating “it’s probably the most bullish I’ve witnessed for a long time”.
Macroeconomic factors are playing a role in gold’s trajectory this past quarter. The World Gold Council attributes gold’s February performance to a weakened US dollar, rising geopolitical risks, and a drop in interest rates.
This aligns with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision in February to lower the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% — the first rate cut since 2020.
In addition to macroeconomic factors, recent trade policies are also boosting gold’s appeal, as tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and the retaliatory measures from affected countries raised fears about an economic slowdown.
In a recent development, Trump signed an executive order in March to increase domestic mineral production for national security. The executive order includes critical minerals, as well as gold, uranium, potash, and copper.
While the executive order primarily targets US domestic production, Toubani Resources (ASX:TRE) CEO Phil Russo highlights its broader implications.
“It is a clear indicator of the strategic value of gold and supports the view that current market conditions are conducive to attracting capital for developing new projects,” Russo tells this news service.
Market movements are reflecting the ongoing uncertainty that is taking place, and to add to the market unease, geopolitical tensions further amplify gold’s value.
In mid-March, Trading Economics reported that Israel launched a wave of airstrikes across the Gaza Strip, with the nearly two-month-old ceasefire with Hamas appearing to fall apart.
“Gold prices are being driven higher largely by uncertainty,” Horizon Minerals (ASX:HRZ) CEO Grant Haywood says.
“Trade tensions and tariff policies looming large, and geopolitical conflicts such as in Gaza are driving investors to the safe haven of gold, including central banks which have been accumulating gold over the last few years.”
Beyond immediate catalysts, a broader structural shift is influencing gold’s long-term trajectory.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Ian Prentice, Managing Director of Cosmo Metals (ASX:CMO), identifies the unwinding of globalisation and a shift away from interdependent trade relationships as a key trend accelerating in the early part of this year.
“This trend started during the covid years, when there was an awareness of the lack of supply chain security and has intensified with a desire for countries to become less reliant on what may be seen as less stable trading partners,” Prentice says.
With gold’s demand drivers constantly evolving, JP Morgan highlights that given the diverse and fluid drivers of demand at the moment, the precious metal has also served as a debasement hedge and in its more traditional role as a non-yielding competitor to US Treasuries and money market funds.
“This means gold has developed what’s known as a ‘smile profile’ to US yields, where it has risen in both periods of falling and rising US real yields for different reasons,” JP Morgan says.
Gold’s role for explorers
As market volatility and economic uncertainty continue to shape the global landscape, gold’s safe-haven status is expected to keep driving its appeal, cementing its position as a critical asset in the short and long term.
Central banks are accumulating gold as a hedge against geopolitical instability, combined with the risk of recessions.
Prentice explains that gold’s role as a safe haven asset has been further highlighted by “central bank purchasing of gold from countries that have historically held USD as a reserve currency — with the wind back of globalisation and the political, security uncertainty, and instability that we are seeing this is expected to be sustained”.
Yet, despite the bullish outlook for gold, industry executives remain steadfast in their cash generation strategies.
Haywood, for instance, asserts that Horizon Minerals’ approach to generate cashflow through mining has not changed, regardless of the external economic environment.
“Our strategy has not changed in relation to developing and bringing in cashflow by mining,” he says.
While the gold price remains near record highs, there is a prevailing sense of optimism within the exploration sector, with many explorers hoping that investor sentiment will soon shift in their favour.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Aureka (ASX:AKA) Managing Director James Gurry says the general level of trade uncertainty seems to be driving investors towards gold.
“Which is a great sign for gold-focused explorers like ourselves,” Gurry says.
“The gold price trend is encouraging us to remain focused on our 7,000m diamond drilling program and step up our activities further where we can.”
Aureka recently secured purchase agreements to acquire 97 hectares of land surrounding the Irvine Project in the Stawell Gold Corridor in Victoria. The Stawell Corridor, which incorporates the Irvine and Langi Logan gold projects, captures 60km of a multi-million-ounce gold zone.
Despite this optimism, there is a clear disconnect between rising gold prices and the investor interest in gold exploration companies.
Haywood highlights that more people prefer to invest in near-term production projects.
“It seems investors want immediate rerating and potential dividends from producers or development companies”
“[This is] quite the opposite for exploration. It seems investors want immediate rerating and potential dividends from producers or development companies,” he says.
Alice Queen’s Buxton echoes a similar view, saying the gold market is yet to see significant investments in junior explorers.
“Much of the investment has focused on established gold producers and it is their stock which has rallied as the gold price has increased,” Buxton says.
For example, Evolution Mining’s (ASX:EVN) share price has increased more than 45.5% from about $5 at the start of 2025 to $7.275 as of 1 April.
Rob Clark, President of Provenance Gold Corp (CSE:PAU), points out larger producers are drawing attention due to their robust balance sheets, leaving junior explorers at a disadvantage.
“The market has been slow to catch up to junior exploration companies, and those with considerable work completed or larger mineralised footprints showing size and scale will likely be recognised first,” Clark tells Mining.com.au.
However, Clark remains hopeful, noting that recent months have brought stronger interest in exploration projects — a trend he believes will continue as major industry players look to expand their portfolios.
“With gold at all-time highs and the larger producers starting to get more attention not only in regard to their balance sheets but also from investors, we believe this could have quite a trickle-down effect on exploration and development projects,” he says.
Cosmo’s Prentice adds that although the sentiment around larger-cap companies and producers is “very positive,” there now appears to be a reward for junior gold explorers.
“Capital is now becoming available for selected players in the junior market,” he says.
Similarly, Pacgold’s Boyes says he has seen a recent influx of interest in gold juniors and exploration projects.
“And anybody who is currently producing or has a good development asset will be getting a lot of attention,” he says.
The market is evidently seeing this in the gold developer space, withToubani, for example, witnessing a more than 100% increase in its share price since the end of January 2025.
On 28 January 2025, Toubani’s share price stood at $0.12 and by 31 March it had risen to $0.245.
Toubani’s strategy to advance its Kobada Gold Project towards a final investment decision further exemplifies the evolving market sentiment.
The company is currently focusing on walk-up oxide targets within the Kobada Project, where higher grade ounces could bolster the front end of the mine plan.
Russo says Toubani is also drilling to test free-milling fresh rock along the 4.5km strike, building on early intercepts that suggest continuity.
“Its a two-pronged effort to grow both immediate and future resources,” he says.
Are we in a golden era?
With Q1 2025 coming to a close, gold has once again proven its resilience amid a fluctuating global economy. Or as Aureka’s Gurry puts it, “with geopolitical events quite unpredictable, particularly from the Whitehouse, long-term investors are driven to the safe harbour of gold as an investment”.
Mining.com.au found that industry executives believe that gold is well placed to continue its traditional role as a safe haven for investors. Pacgold’s Boyes says “gold will see big price swings as it always has but the overall trend will be up.”
According to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts expectations, gold is forecast to trade at US$3,245.35 within 12 months. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the precious metal will reach US$3,100 a troy ounce by the end of this year.
“But continued uncertainty — whether it’s about tariffs, geopolitical risk, or fears about high government borrowing — could also push speculators to increase their long positions in gold,” Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas says.
This scenario could drive the yellow metal’s price as high as US$3,300 per troy ounce by the end of this year.
Looking ahead, industry executives in the exploration sector also believe it is only a matter of time until there is increased investment in junior gold explorers.
Alice Queen’s Buxton explains that gold explorers are the ones who set the foundation for the gold sector.
“It is inevitable that they will receive increased investment to help discover future resources,” he says.
Alice Queen’s project portfolio, located in Fiji, comprises the Viani, Sabeto, and Nabila projects. In recent years, the gold industry in Fiji has been revitalised, driven by work from Alice Queen’s peers and a supportive government environment.
“As a result, there has been growing interest from investors in Fiji’s gold market,” Buxton says.
“Fji may be known to most Australians as a stunning holiday destination, but there is strong potential it will also become widely recognised for its gold industry in the future if this momentum continues.”
The momentum behind gold’s rise is undeniable — with its price continuing to break records, fueled by geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and shifting financial policies.
Industry executives and market analysts alike agree that gold is well-positioned to continue its upward trajectory, with predictions suggesting that this surge in price could continue well into the future.
However, the question remains: is 2025 the year of gold?
While uncertainty remains a constant in the global market landscape, the precious metal’s resilience and its capacity to adapt to shifting conditions, suggests that it could indeed by the year of gold.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: Mining.com.au & Pacgold