By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting August 18.
Comments from U.S. Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium, alongside minutes to the Fed's most recent meeting, will be closely watched as investors increasingly anticipate that U.S. interest-rate cuts will resume next month.
In Europe, U.K. inflation data, provisional purchasing managers' surveys and a rate decision in Sweden are due.
In Asia, Japanese inflation data will be watched as rate-hike bets gather pace, while rate decisions are due in China, New Zealand and Indonesia.
U.S.
Recent weak U.S. jobs data, alongside inflation data which didn't reveal tariffs having a worrying impact on prices, have caused investors to expect that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in September.
Against that backdrop, all eyes will be on the Jackson Hole symposium and particularly on Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday. The symposium runs from Thursday through Saturday, with these year's theme being 'Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.'
Powell's comments at Jackson Hole "are likely to be decisive in answering the question of how firmly the monetary authorities are actually heading for an interest rate cut in September," strategists at LBBW said in a note.
The minutes to the last Fed meeting, due on Wednesday, will also be closely watched.
U.S. money markets now price in a 93.5% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut next month, LSEG data show. President Trump has called for rate cuts, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the central bank should consider a bigger 50 basis-point reduction.
U.S. purchasing managers' surveys on manufacturing and services activity in August will be released on Thursday. These will provide an up-to-date indication of how tariffs have impacted both activity and prices.
"Now that the reciprocal tariffs are in effect, the input cost component of the PMI surveys, particularly in the U.S., should give a first sense of the impact of the higher tariffs on prices," HSBC economists said in a note.
Housing starts data for July are released Tuesday.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $8 billion in 30-year inflation-protected TIPS on Thursday.
Investors will also analyze the outcome of talks between President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska.
Canada
Canadian inflation data for July are released on Tuesday and could be a key indicator for whether or not the Bank of Canada could cut interest rates in September.
Capital Economics economist Alexandra Brown said recent weak Canadian jobs data should justify a rate cut next month. However, "a surprisingly strong CPI print" could prompt another pause, she said.
Canadian housing starts data for July are released Monday.
Eurozone
Preliminary purchasing managers' surveys on manufacturing and services activity during August in France, Germany and the eurozone will be released on Thursday.
These will be among the first key indicators of how U.S. tariffs on European goods have impacted activity and prices.
"In the eurozone, we expect activity to rise slightly in August. But heightened uncertainties surrounding the 2026 French government budget and the effects of the newly implemented U.S. tariffs are likely to keep both manufacturing and services activity subdued in France," HSBC economists said in a note.
The eurozone's flash consumer confidence indicator for August will also be released Thursday.
On Friday, Germany will release detailed second-quarter gross domestic product data, while France's business survey for August is also due.
Germany will conduct two government-bond auctions during the week, selling 4.5 billion euros in October 2030 Bobl on Tuesday and a combined 2.5 billion euros in August 2046 and August 2054 Bunds on Wednesday. France will have bond auctions on Thursday.
U.K.
Inflation data for July on Wednesday will be the highlight of the U.K. calendar in the coming week.
Investors have scaled back expectations for interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England in the coming months due to recent data, including higher-than-expected inflation for June.
Although the central bank cut interest rates in August, the vote was tight and policymakers expressed concern about the risks of inflation rising even further.
Annual inflation was 3.6% in June, well above the BOE's 2.0% target, and is expected to rise even further in July.
Stronger-than-expected inflation could shake Investec's expectation that the BOE will cut rates again in November, economist Sandra Horsfield said in a note.
"Our confidence that the [BOE's] Monetary Policy Committee will deliver another rate cut in November, as we have long predicted, has diminished, and we will analyse the inflation figures closely in deciding whether to maintain this call," she said.
U.K. money markets currently price in only a 28% chance of a rate cut in November and a 60% chance of a reduction in December, LSEG data show.
Preliminary U.K. purchasing managers' surveys on manufacturing and services activity during August on Thursday, followed by GfK's consumer confidence survey for August and July retail sales on Friday, will be important indicators of how the U.K.'s economy is faring.
Any signs of economic weakness could bolster rate-cut expectations.
U.K. public finances figures for July are released Thursday.
The U.K. plans to sell September 2035 index-linked gilts via auction on Tuesday.
Scandinavia
Sweden's Riksbank announces an interest-rate decision on Wednesday, where it is expected to keep its main policy rate unchanged at 2% following recent strong inflation data which came in above the central bank's forecast.
A further rate cut in the coming months is possible, however, if the economy suffers due to the impact of U.S. tariffs.
"We believe the uptick [in inflation] is likely to be temporary, which suggests that the Riksbank will keep rates on hold in August but remain open for a cut in September," SEB analysts said in a note.
Swedish unemployment data for July are due Friday.
Denmark and Norway will hold bond auctions on Wednesday, while Sweden will sell inflation-linked bonds on Thursday.
Japan
Amid expectations for an early interest-rate hike by the Bank of Japan, government data scheduled to be released on Friday is expected to show that inflation remains well above the central bank's 2% target.
Consumer prices excluding fresh food are expected to have risen 3% from a year earlier in July, according to a poll of economists by data provider Quick. That compares with the 3.3% increase recorded in June.
While food costs are expected to rise, declining utility prices should ease overall inflation pressures, ING economists said in a commentary.
Separate data due Wednesday may show a further slowdown in July exports due to the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Economists have voiced concerns about Japanese automakers' profits as they take a hit from higher duties by cutting prices for cars sold in the U.S. Machinery orders figures for June are also due Wednesday.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to make outright purchases of three sectors of Japanese government bonds including those with maturities of more than 5 years and up to 10 years on Wednesday. The planned purchases are likely to lend support to the domestic bond market.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction about 800 billion yen of 20-year sovereign debt on Tuesday. The 20-year JGBs to be issued in August will be a reopening of the July 2025 issue. The auction could attract bidding interest from insurers or pension funds, which typically prefer super-long-dated local government bonds owing to their very high yields.
China
The data slate is virtually empty for China, with the sole event coming Wednesday via a rate announcement from the central bank.
The announcement is unlikely to be surprising, with most economists expecting no changes to both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates that serve as benchmarks for the bulk of corporate and household loans.
UOB economist Ho Woei Chen noted that the People's Bank of China's last quarterly statement reaffirmed a moderately loose monetary policy but removed references to making interest rate cuts at an appropriate time. UOB reckons easing will come again only in the final quarter of the year.
ING economists point out that rather than direct rate cuts, policymakers have moved to support credit activity in more targeted ways, including subsidies for consumer loans.
Australia/New Zealand
In New Zealand, the central bank is expected to take a further step toward restoring some momentum to the economy by cutting interest rates further, adding to the aggressive reductions made since mid-2024.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% at its policy meeting on Wednesday, according to market consensus.
The RBNZ has been cutting enthusiastically for some time, bringing the OCR down from a peak of 5.5% in mid-2024, but the economy has been slow to react.
Policy makers have hinted at further easing, and economists aren't ruling out a further reduction before the end of the year.
Recent economic data has mostly confirmed the need for more cuts as growth struggles to gain traction and unemployment continues to rise.
In Australia, the data calendar is muted.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia will announce its rate decision Wednesday, which is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold.
"We think that BI is likely to take a pause next week as it assesses the pass-through from the July rate cut," Goldman Sachs economists said, noting that while headline inflation has edged up, it is comfortably within the target range.
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August 15, 2025 11:57 ET (15:57 GMT)
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