How to Dodge the Sequence of Returns Trap in Retirement
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Retirement is meant to be a reward for decades of work and saving. But for many, one hidden risk quietly threatens that reward: the risk of experiencing poor investment returns early in retirement while withdrawing from savings. Known as sequence‑of‑returns risk, this phenomenon doesn’t show up when you’re in accumulation mode, but it can dramatically change the outcome when you’re decumulating.
Here’s a clear‑eyed look at this trap, how it works, and six practical actions anyone approaching or living in retirement should consider to reduce its impact.
Why Sequence‑Of‑Returns Risk Matters
When you’re still working and accumulating assets, timing of returns is less critical—positive years can make up for weaker ones. Once you retire and begin taking withdrawals, however, the order of your investment returns matters a lot more.
When a portfolio suffers losses early in retirement and you’re withdrawing funds, those withdrawals essentially lock in losses and reduce the capital available for future growth or recovery. Conversely, a strong early return can give the portfolio room to absorb later down‑years. The same average rate of return can produce very different outcomes simply because the sequence was different.
In short: Two retirees could start with identical portfolios, use the same withdrawal plan, and one runs out of money decades sooner purely because of market timing. The good news: While you can’t control markets, you can plan around this risk.
Six Smart Strategies To Mitigate The Risk
- Create a cash or safe‑assets buffer for early retirement.
Set aside enough liquid, low‑volatility assets (cash, short‑term bonds, CD ladders) to cover your expenses for the first 3–5 years of retirement. By using these instead of tapping volatile investments, you give your growth assets time to recover without forced selling. - Use a “bucket” strategy.
Divide your assets into time‑horizon buckets: the short‑term “now” bucket for imminent needs, a mid‑term “soon” bucket for the next decade, and a longer‑term “later” bucket for growth. This alignment helps manage risk without sacrificing growth entirely. - Be flexible with withdrawals.
When markets are down, consider reducing discretionary spending, delaying major purchases, or pulling more from your safe assets rather than selling depressed investments. Flexibility in withdrawal amounts helps preserve capital when timing is adverse. - Maintain some exposure to growth assets.
While protecting against losses is crucial, completely abandoning stocks or higher‑return assets may leave you vulnerable to inflation and longevity risk. A balanced‑but‑thoughtful asset mix helps. - Sequence income and tax strategies carefully.
Consider which accounts you tap and when (taxable, tax‑deferred, Roth), and align timing of major income events or required minimum distributions (RMDs) to avoid forcing sales in unfavorable markets. Strategic sequencing can reduce the drag of the returns risk. - Delay retirement (if possible) or delay withdrawals.
Working even one additional year can reduce the time you’re exposed to both poor returns and withdrawals. It also increases your savings and possibly your Social Security benefits. Every year delayed is a smaller chance that you’ll begin decumulating in a down market.
A Real‑World View
Consider this simplified example: Two retirees each begin retirement with $1 million and plan annual withdrawals of $40,000. Retiree A benefits from strong market returns in the first five years; retiree B faces poor returns early. Although their average returns over ten years may end up identical, retiree A’s portfolio is significantly larger at year‑10 simply because the good years came early. Retiree B’s beginning losses, combined with early withdrawals, depleted the base that could have grown.
This illustrates exactly what sequence risk looks like—and why early strategy matters more than many realize.
Key Takeaway
Sequence‑of‑returns risk may not get the same headlines as inflation or interest‑rate risk, but for retirees it’s one of the most potent threats to financial longevity. The smartest move isn’t to divine when the market will drop—it’s to craft a withdrawal plan and asset structure that works even when it does.
By building a buffer, aligning assets to time horizons, remaining flexible with spending, and entering retirement with an asset mix tuned to both growth and protection, retirees can significantly reduce the odds that poor early returns will derail the lifestyle they’ve worked so hard to fund.
If you’re nearing retirement or already there, now is the time to review your strategy through the lens of how you’ll withdraw, not just how you saved. Because once the paycheck stops, it’s not just your savings, but the order of how your portfolio behaves that determines how long it lasts.
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