Cryptocurrency prediction markets are increasingly confident that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to trade at a record high between $120,000 and $130,000 by December 31, 2025.
This bullish outlook comes as Bitcoin holds above the $100,000 mark, recovering from a brief sell-off triggered by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
As of press time, the leading digital currency was trading at $106,679, up 1.5% in the past 24 hours, although down nearly 3% over the past week.
Prediction markets set Bitcoin price
Regarding price prediction, the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin ends 2025 at around $120,000, with traders assigning a 76% probability of that outcome, according to data retrieved by Finbold from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket on June 16,
Meanwhile, Polymarket traders are giving Bitcoin a 57% chance of reaching at least $130,000 and a 32% probability of hitting $150,000. For Bitcoin to reach $150,000, it would need to rally by about 40% from its current price.
On the other hand, more aggressive price targets have attracted far less confidence. In this case, predictions for Bitcoin to trade at $200,000 or $250,000 stand at just 13% and 8%, respectively. The lowest confidence bet is a spike to $1 million, with only a 3% chance.
On the other hand, the markets don’t seem to expect a severe correction. The odds of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 or lower are just 26%, while the probability of a plunge back to $20,000 is only 5%.
Institutions show more interest in Bitcoin
For now, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Bitcoin appears to be regaining strength following Thursday’s sell-off linked to the Israel-Iran conflict.
On Monday, the asset briefly reclaimed the $107,000 level, although traders remain cautious amid ongoing regional instability.
Still, institutional demand is helping to support the price. Notably, Japan’s first and only publicly listed Bitcoin treasury company has added 1,100 BTC to its holdings.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw total inflows of $1.37 billion last week, signaling continued investor interest.
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