This investor puts his money where his mouth is, and he’s predicting big returns.
When billionaire Michael Saylor makes a prediction about Bitcoin (BTC +3.68%), investors listen because he has spent the better part of five years turning his software business, Strategy (MSTR +1.74%), formerly known as MicroStrategy, into a Bitcoin digital asset treasury (DAT) company, the first of its kind.
Right now, Saylor’s publicly stated year-end target for 2025 is $150,000 per coin, which is roughly 50% more than Bitcoin’s recent price of about $103,000, and he also predicted a longer glide path to a price of $1 million per coin within four to eight years, which implies growth of about 1,000% from here. The exact numbers are less important than the mechanism of value generation that underpins them, so let’s examine why Saylor is so bullish about the king of cryptocurrencies.
Image source: Getty Images.
This prediction doesn’t need to be right to be worth understanding
Before we size up Saylor’s targets and dig into what might make them possible, it’s important to remember who is talking.
Strategy has been the most prolific corporate buyer of Bitcoin, consistently using stock and convertible debt issuance to add coins quarter after quarter. As of early November, the company’s holdings are reported at 641,205 bitcoins, which works out to be a little bit more than 3% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply outstanding. The health of Strategy is thus deeply intertwined with the health of Bitcoin, so Saylor is heavily incentivized to be loudly bullish about its prospects.
Today’s Change
(3.68%) $3755.30
Current Price
$105901.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$2114B
Day’s Range
$102061.00 – $106491.00
52wk Range
$74604.47 – $126079.89
Volume
70B
Avg Vol
0
Gross Margin
0.00%
Dividend Yield
N/A
Saylor’s targets flow from two simple premises.
First, Bitcoin’s supply growth slows with every halving cycle, when rewards for mining coins are cut in half, and he believes that steady institutional and corporate demand will meet or exceed that limited supply. Bitcoin’s protocol caps total supply at 21 million, so structural scarcity tightens over time even without enthusiastic buyers. So, later buyers will consistently need to bid higher and higher over time to get holders to part with their coins.
Second, he frames Bitcoin as a neutral store of value that does not depend on any government. That’s advantageous because governments have a tendency to print fiat currency, but it’s not possible for them or for anyone else to print more Bitcoin.
Plans are what build wealth
You don’t need to agree with Saylor’s exact numbers to see the crux of his investment thesis. Less new supply plus more long-duration demand is supportive of higher prices over the long term. It’s hard to find fault with this logic when it has supported Bitcoin’s price all the way from nothing to where it is today.
Today’s Change
(1.74%) $4.12
Current Price
$241.32
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$70B
Day’s Range
$219.82 – $243.71
52wk Range
$219.68 – $543.00
Volume
13K
Avg Vol
12M
Gross Margin
75.93%
Dividend Yield
N/A
Most investors should have at least some exposure to Bitcoin, regardless of whether Saylor’s predictions are ultimately precisely correct or not. Dollar cost averaging (DCA) by buying a fixed dollar amount of Bitcoin on a set schedule is a great way to get the asset’s volatility to work for you rather than against you. By DCAing, you will inevitably buy some Bitcoin at its highs and some at its lows, but over multi-year horizons, you will capture the growth from its increasing scarcity. If you prefer a vehicle, you can trade in your brokerage or retirement accounts with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold Bitcoin, now making gradual allocation simpler for many investors while avoiding self-custody complexity.
Again, by buying Bitcoin, you’re not trying to nail all your purchases before Saylor’s price target of $150,000 rolls around. You’re trying to own more coins before the supply gets even tighter and the audience gets bigger, and if you plan ahead and stick to your purchasing over the long term, you will definitely succeed in that goal.