IRENA says a “major scale-up” in both public and private financing is required to increase the share of investment in developing countries.
The vast majority of investment in renewables last year — 84 percent — was channeled into the EU, China and the United States. India and Brazil accounted for around 6 percent; investments in Africa are minuscule and actually halved between 2022 and 2023.
IRENA’s progress assessment finds the world falling short on almost every measure, aside from solar power.
To reach the COP28 tripling target, installed renewables capacity would have to increase from 3.9 terawatts (TW) today to 11.2 TW by the end of the decade, the agency says. But current national targets are projected to add only another 3.5 TW to reach 7.4 TW by 2030.
Countries’ plans submitted to the U.N. under the Paris Agreement — known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs — suggest even weaker growth, reaching only 5.4 TW by 2030. Governments are required to submit updated NDCs next year; IRENA says that the new set of plans must “more than double” their renewables targets.
Solar is the only renewable technology growing at the required level. Onshore wind needs to triple, while offshore wind and bioenergy should increase six-fold. Geothermal capacity ought to grow 35 times faster than it did last year to meet its projected share.
On energy efficiency, “little meaningful progress has been made” over the past year, IRENA says. Some key measures to save energy include renovating old buildings and boosting electrification, as electric vehicles and heat pumps consume less energy than their fossil fuel counterparts.
Yet while EV sales reached a record 18 percent of total global car sales last year, the picture is dire for heat pumps, the agency warns: After a brief surge in 2022, their sales fell by 3 percent in 2023, with a particularly notable decline in Europe.