With grain export data offline since the U.S. government shutdown on Oct. 1, Canadian farmers are calling on Ottawa to create its own export sales reporting program.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
The U.S. government shutdown has silenced critical grain export data, leaving Canadian traders, market analysts and farmers hamstrung precisely when trade tensions are driving acute market volatility.
The United States Department of Agriculture reports export sales of 40 agricultural commodities such as corn, soybeans and wheat on a weekly basis. It is the largest and most robust data source of its kind and has existed since the Cold War.
The database is a concrete demand signal for goods from one of the world’s largest agricultural industries. It means market watchers in Canada can calculate remaining supplies, and use this information to speculate on pricing.
But the data have been offline since the U.S. federal government shut down on Oct. 1.
This is particularly bad timing. China is a major buyer of Canadian canola seed and U.S. soybean. Beijing imposed tariffs on Canadian canola starting in March and, until this week, had not brought a single U.S. soybean during the fall harvest. These trade tensions are driving price volatility.
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This uncertainty and the USDA blackout brings to light questions about why Canada continues to remain reliant on the U.S. information, and Western producers are demanding Canadian data collection as robust as that south of the border.
“Without detail we’re moving in an opaque environment,” said Dale Leftwich, policy manager at SaskOilseeds, the industry association representing Saskatchewan’s $14.7-billion canola sector. Grains are supposed to be traded in a free and open market, he said. “It’s not an open market when there is hidden information.”
The USDA has reported sales of 40 agricultural commodities since 1973 (barring government shutdowns).
To the Americans, it is a matter of national security. The database came about after the “Great Russian Grain Robbery” of 1972, when the Soviet Union quietly brought 10 million tonnes of grain from numerous private U.S. exporters, depleting government stocks and causing a run up in food prices.
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The USDA data influence world markets, said Kevin Price, a cash grain trader based in Vancouver. He has other sources of information, including newswires and industry tools, but the world watches USDA export sales, and traders and analysts use it to forecast prices.
Concrete sales data are especially warranted right now, said Chuck Penner, a grain analyst with Winnipeg-based LeftField Commodity Research.
Agricultural trade tensions are high in North America. China is the U.S. soybean industry’s largest market and, in a massive blow to Midwest farmers, the Asian giant didn’t buy a single bean from the 2025 harvest until the end of October.
This affects canola, Canada’s most lucrative crop. Canola and soybeans are both oilseeds. If there is a glut of soybeans, this will depress prices for all seed oils. Which is unfortunate, given that China levied 78.5-per-cent tariffs on Canadian canola seed in August, depressing prices and costing Western farmers tens of thousands of dollars each.
As a result, Canadian canola farmers are waiting for higher prices and hoarding seed, storing the equivalent of 76 fully loaded mega cargo ships, The Globe and Mail reported last week. It is a high-risk bet. Seed can spoil. Storage is expensive. And prices could fall further.
And that’s why reliable export sales data are vital right now, said Mr. Penner.
For example, when Beijing agreed to purchase U.S. soybeans this week, it normally would have prompted an immediate flash sales report from the USDA accessible to all. Instead it was confirmed by newswires, potentially after most grain companies were already in the loop.
Farmers need accessible and concrete data for leverage.
Should export sales go up, a farmer could choose to hold inventory until they saw this reflected in prices, said Mr. Leftwich. However, if the USDA’s export sales data come back online in a few weeks and show less sales than expected, that could further depress prices – leaving farmers with a losing hand, he added.
Canadian grain exports are published weekly by the Canadian Grains Commission, the federal grain regulator. However, it is a far cry from what the USDA delivers.
The CGC’s Grain Stats Weekly is backward looking, Mr. Penner said. It is collected when the grain is loaded onto a boat and shipped out. China could, for example, sign a grain contract with a shipper in May and it wouldn’t show up in the data until many months after farmers have sold their grain to the elevator.
The Canadian Wheat Board was the single source of grain export sales intel for the Prairies’ grain trade from the 1930s until 2012, when former prime minister Stephen Harper’s government disbanded it. Since then, this information has been in the hands of private grain companies – which are becoming increasingly consolidated (U.S. grain giant Bunge Global SA bought Viterra Inc. – the remnants of the Canadian Wheat Board – in July).
Facing this trifactor of trade tensions, increasing consolidation and an unpredictable southern neighbour, the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, which represents farmers and ranchers in 135 rural municipalities, is calling on Ottawa to create its own export sales reporting program.
The U.S. decided that this information was a matter of national security, said Mr. Leftwich. Canada should do the same, he said. It is a legacy from the Canadian Wheat Board that should have been addressed over a decade ago.
“This is the unfinished business of moving into open markets.”