New Delhi: After India’s bold action, the Indus River, which also deemed as the lifeblood of Pakistan ‘s agricultural sector, is facing an unprecedented crisis. India’s decision to keep the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after the barbaric Pahalgam terror attack has left Pakistan in a state of shock. As India appears to be rock-steady on its decision to hold the treaty, Pakistan’s water authorities are sounding the alarm bells. Notably, a recent meeting of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) Advisory Committee revealed a grim picture, with a 21% water shortage expected during the early Kharif season, which spans from May 1 to June 10.
According to reports, the shortage of water is attributed to a sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows at Marala, primarily due to reduced water releases from India. The report was presented during the meeting of IRSA to approve the anticipated water availability criteria for balance period of Kharif from May to September.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, has been a cornerstone of water sharing between India and Pakistan. Under the treaty, Pakistan has been allocated the waters of the western tributaries, including the Chenab River, while India has control over the eastern tributaries. However, with India’s decision to suspend the treaty, Pakistan’s water security hangs in the balance. The IRSA Advisory Committee meeting, chaired by IRSA Chairman Sahibzada Muhammad Shabir, reviewed the water situation for the remaining months of the Kharif season, which includes the early Kharif from May 1 to June 10 and late Kharif from June 11 to September periods.
The expected water shortage will have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s agricultural sector, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. As per reports, over 80% of crops rely on Indus water, and any disruption in the water supply will lead to yield drops in wheat, rice, and cotton, eventually affecting the country’s GDP and food security. The situation is further worsen by the fact that Pakistan’s major reservoirs, such as the Tarbela and Mangla dams, currently hold less than 30% of their storage capacity.
In light of the expected water shortage, the IRSA has decided to adopt a conjunctive use approach for available reservoirs. The strategy aimed to maintain provincial water allocations and ensure equitable distribution of the limited water resources. The IRSA will closely monitor the situation on a daily basis and revise projections if conditions deteriorate further.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has brought to the fore the water diplomacy between India and Pakistan. In the meantime, while India claimed its right to the water, Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus River system makes it vulnerable to any disruptions in the water supply.
According to experts, as the early Kharif season progresses, the pressure is on the Pakistani government to work to mitigate the effects of the expected water shortage. The IRSA’s decision to monitor the situation daily and revise projections as necessary, cannot provide a long-term solution and it can only be achieved through diplomatic efforts and a renewed commitment to the Indus Waters Treaty.