The oil market had a choppy session yesterday, still trying to digest the impact of Russian sanctions amid an increasingly comfortable balance as we head into 2026. However, a set of bullish numbers from the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly inventory report ensured crude oil prices closed higher, with Brent settling 0.81% higher on the day.
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 6.86m barrels over the last week. It was driven by the Gulf Coast, where crude inventories declined by just shy of 10m barrels. Lower imports were behind the inventory draw, with total crude imports falling 867k b/d week-on-week to the lowest level since February 2021, while Gulf Coast imports hit a record low. Refined product numbers were also bullish. Gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 5.94m barrels and 3.36m barrels, respectively. The decline in gasoline inventories occurred despite exports falling 363k b/d. Stronger domestic demand provided support, with implied gasoline demand increasing 470k b/d WoW, while refiners also reduced their utilisation rates by 2 percentage points to 86.6%.
Looking ahead, plenty of attention will be on today’s talks between President Trump and President Xi. The market will also be watching this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where the group will likely announce another 137k b/d supply hike for December.
Away from oil, the latest positioning data shows that investment funds cut their net long in Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas by 14.3TWh over the last reporting week to 46.2TWh – a move driven largely by fresh shorts entering the market. European natural gas prices continue to trade in a largely range-bound manner as we head further into the heating season, despite EU storage standing at just under 83% full. This is below the 5-year average of 92% and is slowly drawing. Meanwhile, investment funds marginally cut their net long in EU allowances by 821 contracts to 93,894, a marginal decline, but it’s the first week of fund selling this month.