The Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC), the UK’s leading agri-supply trade association, says geopolitical pressures, EU tariffs and logistical bottlenecks could disrupt supplies if orders are left too late.
Changing weather patterns are already “compressing delivery timelines”, says the group – underlined by this year’s growing season, with 40pc more sunshine and 40pc less rainfall speeding crop development and shortening the window for fertiliser orders.
Farmers were advised that early ordering is vital to give suppliers sufficient time to plan, source, and deliver efficiently.
“Suppliers need clear demand signals to plan effectively,” said Jo Gilbertson, head of fertiliser at AIC. “Without early engagement, distribution networks may struggle to meet demand within narrow timeframes.”
The AIC says new EU tariffs on Russian fertiliser and the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are expected to influence European supply chains – and if EU producers prioritise domestic markets, UK access may be affected.
These factors, combined with logistical constraints such as daily bagging and delivery limits, “underscore the importance of proactive planning”.
Mark Southwell, fertiliser procurement manager at Norfolk-based agricultural purchasing group AF, said: “The market is unlikely to ease, which means waiting for a drop in prices could be risky, especially with concerns around availability in spring.
“I strongly advise you to order soon, taking into consideration any product you’ll need for spring 2026 applications. Take delivery before Christmas or in early 2026.
“Also remember base fertiliser (if not already done). Get fields sampled and consider a bespoke take-off rather than maintenance mix.”
AF crop protection procurement manager Alfie Jackson said other product shortages could also present farmers with weed control challenges this autumn.
“We’ve had some rain, followed by a flush of blackgrass and by now those who delayed drilling have seen a second opportunity for control,” he said. “The lower-cost generic herbicides are in short supply as stocks have been diverted to Europe, where the cost of these herbicides is higher ahead of imminent product withdrawal. We’re expecting more product in the country later this month.”
Mr Jackson said there is “plenty of effective R&D chemistry available” from major manufacturers – but he added: “With price of wheat at £170 (per tonne) for November 2026, farmers are trying to match costs to future income.”
“It’s important for growers to react to the crop and conditions in front of them,” he said.
“But despite a few challenges to overcome, overall it’s a positive autumn for most arable farmers so far, giving them fantastic conditions to get crops in the ground.”
Autumn outlook
AF chief agricultural officer John Barrett said seeds were being planted in “excellent” conditions this autumn – and drilling trends among the group’s arable members had revealed some ups and downs in cropping areas.
“We’ve seen an increase in winter wheat area, as farmers look to focus on growing the lowest risk crop,” he said.
“Well-sown is half grown – drilling conditions have been excellent this year, with our members drilling into fantastic seed beds at relatively low cost.
“Early harvest of potatoes and sugar beet in great conditions is also lending itself to turning land around for wheat.
“Winter barley area is down with a shift from hybrid to conventional varieties, again to help cut costs. Malting premiums are currently low as maltsters stocks are high, meaning a reduction in area of winter malting barley being sown.
“Some members are still growing feed barley for crop rotation and early entry into oilseed rape benefits.”