“There’s no doubt the second half we’re going to expect to see significant firepower coming from China,” McGuire said, pointing to the country’s efforts to stabilise its property market and boost internal demand. This potential stimulus is expected to particularly benefit industrial metals like copper, steel, and platinum, all of which are showing early signs of strength.
Platinum, for instance, has surged by 40% in just eight weeks. Copper has crossed the $10,000/tonne mark. “The market’s certainly on fire,” McGuire said, stating that Q3 (July to September 2025) could see further upside as global demand firms up.
Steel, which has been one of the weakest links over the last 18 months, may be nearing a bottom. Chinese steel prices have dropped nearly 30% from their highs, prompting authorities to consider production cuts in key provinces. “Naturally, the only way to get prices up would be to restrict production,” McGuire said, adding that the commodity appears “quite simply oversold at the moment.” He expects a 5–10% rebound in prices over the next six months.
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Adding to the bullish sentiment is the continued weakness in the US dollar, which McGuire said is helping support the entire base metals complex. He also flagged strong demand from India, where steel consumption has jumped from about 120 million tonne to over 150 million tonne in a short span, while global production has largely remained flat. “The world is certainly building, and it requires steel,” he said.
Turning to gold, McGuire said the outlook remains positive, driven by a combination of factors — softening dollar, robust central bank and retail demand, and macro uncertainty. “I still believe that end of Q4 will be higher than where it is at the moment,” he said, emphasising that the second half will likely be more dynamic than the first.
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As for oil, McGuire sees a largely range-bound trend, with Brent expected to trade between the mid-$60s per barrel and possibly up to $70/barrel. Despite geopolitical noise, including developments around Iran and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, he doesn’t expect major supply shocks in the near term. “There’s going to be no shortage of oil,” he said, but also cautioned that increased production could lead to softness in prices by Q4, possibly tipping the market toward a mild surplus.
For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video