Wandile Sihlobo says SA’s consumer food price inflation should continue on its current moderating path
I am back at my desk, and on January 12, 2026, I had my first meetings with colleagues in the financial services industry about the state of the South African agricultural sector.
My broad message in the meetings was that the sector is continuing its recovery, though unevenly.
The cattle industry continues to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease. The effectiveness of the vaccination process, which should gain momentum soon, will be the major determinant of whether we can see evenly spread growth or recovery in the agricultural sector this year.
Remember, South Africa’s agricultural performance in 2025 was superb from a macro level. But the growth was powered by field crops and horticulture, while the cattle industry struggled with higher feed costs at the start of the year and the spread of foot-and-mouth disease. It is because of such disparities in performance that we termed 2025 as an uneven recovery in South Africa’s agriculture.
It is for the excellent production conditions in field crops (grains, oilseeds and sugarcane), and horticulture (fruits, wine, and vegetables) that in the first three quarters of 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports amounted to US$11.7 billion, up 10% year-on-year.
When we receive the full-year 2025 data, I suspect that South Africa’s agricultural exports would have exceeded US$13.7 billion in 2024 and possibly crossed US$14 billion. The volumes of exports and prices were generally healthy. Red meat exports took a knock due to foot-and-mouth disease.