New Delhi, Apr 24 (PTI) India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could have serious repercussions for Pakistan’s agricultural economy, disrupting crucial water data sharing and reducing flows during key crop seasons, experts have warned.
The long-term impact, however, depends on India’s ability to quickly develop the infrastructure required to utilise its full share of the Indus basin’s western rivers — a process that could take a decade or more, they said.
India’s decision to suspend the decades-old treaty follows the killing of 26 people, mostly tourists, in a terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam on Tuesday.
Signed in 1960, the treaty allocates the eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas and Ravi — to India and the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — to Pakistan. Notably, the treaty includes no clause allowing unilateral suspension.
Experts have pointed to the legal constraints of the agreement, India’s geographic advantage as the upstream country and the potentially-severe economic fallout for Pakistan.
Himanshu Thakkar of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP) said, “The treaty has no provision for unilateral suspension. On the eastern rivers, India is already utilising most of its allocated share. The real issue is with the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — where infrastructure limitations prevent us from immediately stopping water flows.” “We have several projects underway in the Chenab basin that will take five to seven years to complete. Until then, water will continue to flow to Pakistan by gravity. Once these are operational, India will have control mechanisms that currently do not exist,” Thakkar told PTI.
Pakistan’s economy, already under strain, could face further stress as agriculture contributes 22.7 per cent to its GDP and employs 37.4 per cent of the workforce, according to its 2022-23 Economic Survey.
Shripad Dharmadhikary, environmental activist and founder of Manthan Adhyayan Kendra, emphasised the critical importance of the Indus river system for Pakistan. “The entire Indus basin’s agriculture and economy are heavily dependent on the river’s waters,” he said.
According to the World Bank’s “Pakistan: Getting More from Water” (2019) report, the Indus system irrigates 90 per cent of the country’s food crops. Wheat, rice and cotton — major exports that earned USD 4.8 billion in 2022 (State Bank of Pakistan) — are particularly vulnerable to water disruptions during crucial growth periods.
Dharmadhikary also cautioned against assuming that India could rapidly divert water flows. “At present, we lack the major infrastructure needed to stop water from flowing into Pakistan,” he said. “Constructing such systems would take around a decade and could be viewed as an act of war.” “If we declare the treaty annulled and attempt to stop water flows, it might take 10 years to implement. But that would represent a serious escalation — cutting off water can be considered an act of war,” he told PTI.
Dharmadhikary, however, said while large-scale diversion is years away, short-term disruptions are possible. “For example, we could halt environmental flows into the Neelam or Kishanganga river by altering reservoir operations,” he said.
P K Saxena, former Indian commissioner for Indus waters, earlier told think-tank NatStrat that India should respond strategically by accelerating development on the western rivers, engaging in proactive treaty renegotiations and challenging Pakistan’s selective interpretations.
“The ongoing diplomatic and technical engagement over the Indus Waters Treaty highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics of shared water resources in South Asia. India’s calm and principled approach will be key to navigating this sensitive issue,” he told NatStrat.
Thakkar also underscored problems with the treaty’s dispute-resolution mechanisms. “It has been in a mess for nearly a decade,” he said, referring to the parallel legal processes initiated since Pakistan objected to the Kishanganga project in 2016.
“There is a Court of Arbitration process underway that India has boycotted. But non-participation does not stop the process — the court will proceed regardless,” he said.
“India had proposed a review of the treaty to consider climate change and other evolving factors. But Pakistan has refused to engage,” Thakkar added. PTI UZM RC
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