Despite April’s Energy Price Cap reduction, experts warn the relief may be short-lived.
The Energy Price Cap will fall from April – but not because energy itself is cheaper.
According to Laura Hinton from MoneySuperMarket: “While the energy price cap is coming down from next month, this is largely due to readjustments on green levies, rather than wholesale energy costs themselves.
“Recent developments in the Middle East have pushed wholesale gas prices to a 12-month high, up 13% compared with 2025 levels.”
Wholesale gas remains the dominant driver of UK electricity pricing — meaning global tensions can quickly filter through to household bills.
Important: If you can get off the Energy Price Cap right now, you should & urgently!
– The wholesale gas rate is spiking due to the Iran conflict, and it is a prime driver or UK elec prices. If that’s sustained (big if), it will likely push the Price Cap rate up from July
– Some…— Martin Lewis (@MartinSLewis) March 3, 2026
Martin Lewis: “If you can get off the price cap right now, you should – urgently”
Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert, has issued a stark warning: “The wholesale gas rate is spiking due to the conflict in the Middle East… If that’s sustained, it will likely push the Energy Price Cap rate up from July.”
Some fixed deals – around 14% cheaper than the current Price Cap – were still available earlier this week. But many are being repriced or pulled.
“There’s a risk many of the current cheapest fixes will be gone by this time tomorrow,” warns Mr Lewis.
He also stressed this is about securing a genuinely cheap fix, not rushing into any deal that merely matches the cap.
The Price Cap is falling but bills could still rise
Nigel Pocklington, CEO of Good Energy, says the latest spike highlights a deeper structural issue in the UK market: “Whenever there is renewed conflict on the global stage, energy markets react quickly – and that’s exactly what we’ve seen again in recent days.
“Even if the UK is not directly involved, uncertainty around supply routes or diplomatic escalation is enough to push gas prices up.”
He explains that while renewables generate a significant share of Britain’s electricity, wholesale power prices are still often set by the marginal gas plant – meaning electricity prices rise even when wind and solar output is high: “This is a consequence of continued exposure to fossil fuels and global markets we don’t control.
“Wind and solar don’t spike in price because of conflict, and every additional unit of British renewable generation reduces our exposure to global shocks.”
Pocklington argues the long-term solution is accelerating domestic renewable energy and reforming market structures to reduce gas dependency.
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What can households do to minimise price rises?
Pocklington says there’s “no silver bullet”, but practical steps can reduce exposure:
1. Cut overall demand
Improving insulation, upgrading inefficient appliances and being smarter about usage can significantly lower bills over time.
2. Look beyond headline price
“Tariffs genuinely backed by renewable electricity… offer greater stability and help support the investment in clean infrastructure that ultimately brings bills down,” he adds.
3. Consider smart tech and solar
Rooftop solar, batteries and time-of-use tariffs can reduce reliance on peak-price electricity.
How much could you save?
Some current fixed deals are saving households up to £108 a year versus today’s Price Cap.
For risk-averse households, locking into a competitively priced fix now could provide:
- Immediate savings
- Protection against summer hikes
- Peace of mind
Energy markets are volatile. Wholesale gas is rising sharply. Fixed deals are disappearing fast.