Rapid growth in energy demand, driven primarily by data centres, could contribute to an “electricity shortage event” in the next two to five years, the energy regulator has said.
A risk preparedness plan published by the Commission for the Regulation of Utilities (CRU) examines such an event. The CRU said the plan was not a prediction but considered crisis-type events, which are “reasonable worst-case scenarios”.
It examined rapid growth in electricity demand above historic trends, which it deemed as “likely”. Predicted growth is “largely attributed to growth in data centre loads”, the paper found.
This could combine with growth in electrical demand for heat and transport systems and factors such as seasonal demand spikes, cold snaps or low wind generation.
Such a scenario could mean an “adequacy gap” between electricity supply and demand. The CRU said an adequacy gap would not be “imminent” and could be identified and planned for in advance.
The plan examines how plausible scenarios are, rating them from “very likely” to “extremely unlikely”. The CRU said “likely” is a “shorthand term for the probability of an event which could occur at a frequency of one in two-to-five years”.
A CRU spokesman said if maximum demand forecast materialised, “it is plausible that there could be an electricity shortage event within the next two to five year period”.
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He said steps to mitigate this had been completed and put in place in recent years, pointing to emergency generation capacity in place as well as new policy on connecting large users like data centres, adding that any forecast deficits in generation had been mitigated already.
Dr Paul Deane of the Sustainability Institute at University College Cork argued the chance of a power outage was low, with an ability to “press the pause button” before demand became unsustainable.
However, Dr Muireann Lynch, senior research officer at the ESRI, said the paper suggested a “high chance” of supply interruptions for some customers before 2030, although the amount of power loss would be quite low.
She said policymakers should consider if rapid expansions in demand are “in the best interests of the country at present”, while regulators and system operators should “urgently determine why we are at risk of being unable to build enough generation to meet increased demand”.
Social Democrats’ climate spokeswoman Jennifer Whitmore said the report was a warning of risks associated with the Government’s approach to the management of data centres.
“It is becoming increasingly urgent that Government applies a holistic, strategic approach to dealing with this resource-hungry infrastructure,” she said.