Cenovus Energy will likely takeover MEG Energy after a shareholder vote was postponed according to a prominent Canadian energy expert.
A vote on its takeover offer was delayed after it appeared the vote would fall short of the two-thirds majority required. Cenovus said 63 per cent of MEG shareholders supported the bid, falling shy of the 66 per cent required. The new vote is scheduled for Oct. 30.
“Every vote to get from this point is probably incrementally harder, but it’s a relatively small bogey,” Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners told BNN Bloomberg in a Tuesday interview. “Typically, the merger arms will vote in favour, and I think if it becomes clear that Cenovus is not going to increase their bid, which we don’t think, then those are the most likely.”
Strathcona Resources, which owns 14 per cent stake in MEG, recently dropped its bid. Cenovus said Strathcona is assumed to have voted against the deal. Cenovus and MEG have neighbouring oilsands properties at Christina Lake, south of Fort McMurray, Alta while Strathcona has operations in the area.
“We think the most likely is Cenovus will either get the remaining three per cent of shares, or if failing that, they’ll just convert it to a friendly takeover bid,” said Nuttall.
Nuttall said the delay was unexpected. He said there are four options. Cenovus can either find the remaining three per cent votes it needs, become unsuccessful in their bid but receive approval for a friendly takeover at 50 per cent, walk away and watch their stock fall or see Strathcona swoop in with a takeover.
A friendly takeover occurs when a company agrees to an offer by the board of directors while a hostile takeover happens when a company acquires another against the wishes of the board, typically buying enough shares to vote them out.
MEG stocks hovered around $30, Cenovus was around $25 and Strathcona was $35 this week. Nutall said he owns stocks in Cenovus. He said he is cautious, in the short term on oil, seeing a lot of concern in the stock markets, preferring natural gas instead. He however is bullish on Cenovus and it’s future if it does acquire MEG.
“If they get MEG, they will have the best oil sand quality assets in Canada,” said Nuttall. “We think fair value at $60 oil is about $30 a share. We’re a believer that in the second half of next year, you could see well above $70 at which point we would see fair value exceeding $35 person of a share.
”The deferral is the second time the vote was delayed. Shareholders were expected to vote early October, but Cenovus decided to raise its cash offer and increase its shares.
With files from the Canadian Press