The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts have continued to disrupt global supply chains, leading to sharp fluctuations in food prices. As a result, many African countries and China are both facing uncertainties in food supply. Agricultural trade has long been regarded as a crucial means to adjust the imbalance between food supply and demand. Its cooperative potential between China and sub-Saharan Africa—regions that account for one-third of the world’s population—has attracted significant attention. So, can China–Africa agricultural trade truly become an effective way to alleviate food security issues?
A collaborative research team from institutions including China Agricultural University and Solomon Islands National University has addressed this question through in-depth analysis using a multi-country general equilibrium model. By leveraging trade data from 2001 to 2022 and combining it with a structural multi-country trade model, the team simulated the impact of China–Africa agricultural trade liberalization on the welfare and food security of both parties. The related paper has been published in Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering (DOI: 10.15302/J-FASE-2025617).
The study found that Africa’s agricultural exports to China have achieved an annual compound growth rate of 21.3% over the past two decades. However, these exports only account for 5.5% of Africa’s total exports to China, far below the global average of 16.4%—indicating that Africa still has substantial untapped export potential. Trade barriers and inefficient logistics are key factors restricting African agricultural products from entering the Chinese market. For instance, as of 2023, only 12 African countries have obtained approval to export coffee beans and cocoa beans to China.
This research endogenizes the China–Africa cooperation mechanism into the model, overcoming the limitation of traditional general equilibrium models that struggle to capture the bidirectional policy-trade feedback loop. By simulating the scenario of a China–Africa Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the study reveals that reducing trade costs will significantly improve the welfare of both regions. Among African countries, Reunion, Rwanda, and Ghana have seen particularly notable welfare improvements, reaching 18.8%, 17.0%, and 15.7% respectively; China’s welfare is also expected to increase by 2.94%.
Furthermore, the structure of Africa’s exports to China is gradually shifting from primary agricultural products to processed goods. Currently, plant-based products and processed foods account for 90% of Africa’s agricultural exports to China. Meanwhile, China’s exports to Africa have evolved from a focus on grain in the early stages to downstream products such as edible oils and dairy products—reflecting the growing complementarity between the two parties in the agricultural value chain.
Despite the overall positive outlook, the issue of uneven development within Africa remains prominent. Thirty-three African countries currently run a trade deficit with China in agricultural products, 28 of which are landlocked countries. High logistics costs and fragile supply chains are the main obstacles. To achieve more equitable trade benefits, it is necessary to strengthen policy coordination and technical cooperation in areas such as infrastructure development, harmonization of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) standards, and climate-resilient practices.
This study not only provides quantitative evidence for China–Africa agricultural cooperation but also points out a feasible path to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2: Zero Hunger). In the future, if more capacity-building and technical assistance can be integrated into the framework of the FTA, China–Africa agricultural trade is expected to become a key driver for promoting shared food security and economic development.
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