Almost a quarter of farmland could be lost by 2050 amid competing demands for housing, solar energy, tree planting and nature restoration, warns a new report.
The “UK Food Security – Outlook to 2050” study, published by the think-tank Science for Sustainable Agriculture (SSA), says alternative land uses threaten to displace domestic food production on an “unprecedented scale”.
As a result, it says the UK faces a steep decline in its ability to feed itself, with the potential loss of up to 23pc of currently farmed land – unless urgent steps are taken to balance land use, environmental goals and food production.
It highlights government house-building and nature restoration targets, as well as a rapid rise in renewable energy developments – which have become a particular concern in Norfolk, where a proliferation of recent applications for massive solar farms has sparked significant concerns over the loss of prime agricultural land.
The report concludes that unless agricultural productivity is prioritised alongside environmental policies, the UK risks a significant decline in food self-sufficiency by 2050.
This could lead to greater reliance on food imports which are vulnerable global supply disruptions, and would “off-shore the environmental footprint of our food supply”.
The analysis was led by Dr Derrick Wilkinson, a former chief economist for the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) and Country and and Business Association (CLA).
He said: “We are struggling to keep up with the loss of farmland over the past 25 years. New demands for land to address environmental concerns, coupled with rising food demand from a growing population, mean that we must find innovative ways of producing more food from the land we have left.
“The rate of growth in agricultural yields and output has slowed markedly over the past 10–15 years due to a range of factors, including challenges of extreme weather and a greater focus on production-limiting farm policy incentives.
“Boosting yields on remaining farmland is essential if we are to meet net zero and biodiversity goals without jeopardising food security.”
The report says the UK lost 771,000ha of farmland (4.4pc) between 2000 and 2024 – adding that “business as usual” could lead to the loss of a further 835,000ha by 2050.
However, under full implementation of the government’s land use, environmental and “net-zero” policies, nearly a quarter of farmland could disappear – mainly high-value arable land.
While recognising the importance of environmental and climate goals, the report calls for a new “policy balance” to protect domestic food security.
This includes boosting yields on remaining farmland through scientific innovation, technology adoption, and better-targeted government support, while ministers are also urged to reconsider land use strategies and improve policy integration across agriculture, environment, energy, food security, and trade.