Will the United States strike Iran? Who will win the Super Bowl? The Oscars? The municipal elections in Paris? These uncertainties can pay off big on Polymarket. With a rather austere appearance, the American website presents thousands of questions, allowing bettors to wager on the outcome of current events and collect winnings if they choose correctly.
In the United States, such prediction market platforms are booming. In November 2025, the volume of bets on Polymarket and Kalshi, the two leaders in the sector, was estimated at nearly $13 billion (€10.9 billion). By early 2026, Polymarket has claimed tens of millions of visitors and hundreds of thousands of active traders.
Molly White, a researcher and engineer from Northeastern University in Boston, Massachusetts, described “a powerful trend” in the United States, “where everything becomes an excuse for gambling.” Nikos Smyrnaios, a professor of social sciences at the University of Toulouse, added that there are issues raised by “risk speculation,” which he described as characterized by “a total absence of ethics.”
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