is set to report fourth-quarter results after the market closes Thursday, with investors focused on whether the company’s push into rural infrastructure lending can offset mounting pressures in traditional farm credit. Analysts expect earnings of $4.57 per share on revenue of $105.26 million, representing modest sequential improvement from the prior quarter’s $4.52 per share and $105.09 million.
The two analysts covering the stock maintain a strong buy rating with a mean price target of $226.67, implying 29.78% upside from current levels. Yet that bullish stance comes against a backdrop of softening estimate momentum. EPS estimates have declined 0.95% over the past 60 days, though revenue estimates have risen 2.08% over the same period, suggesting analysts anticipate a shift in business mix rather than margin expansion.
The government-sponsored enterprise, commonly known as Farmer Mac, trades at 9.65 times trailing earnings—a steep discount to its analyst price targets—as it navigates a challenging agricultural lending environment. U.S. farmers took out record-sized operating loans in 2025, averaging 30% higher than the previous year, amid tighter working capital and higher input costs. Grain producers face their third consecutive year of compressing margins, with corn and soybean returns remaining below cost of production for most operations.
What Investors Are Watching
The composition of loan growth will be critical. Farmer Mac’s expansion into renewable energy, broadband, and infrastructure finance is driving significant new business volume and higher spreads, potentially offsetting weakness in traditional Farm & Ranch lending. Investors will parse segment-level disclosures to gauge whether these higher-margin infrastructure businesses are compensating for agricultural sector stress.
Credit quality metrics will face scrutiny as borrowers strain under compressed margins. Any commentary on delinquencies, loan loss provisions, or portfolio stress testing will signal management’s confidence in maintaining asset quality through a prolonged downturn.
Finally, 2026 guidance will set the tone. With the ag outlook signaling a correction rather than collapse, and cattle operations remaining profitable while row crop producers struggle, management’s outlook on loan demand across segments will determine whether current valuations represent opportunity or risk.
In its most recent quarter, Federal Agricultural Mortgage posted earnings of $4.52 per share, narrowly missing the $4.54 consensus by 0.44%, though revenue of $105.09 million beat expectations by 4.15%. The company has generated 12.85% diluted EPS growth and 8.81% revenue growth over the trailing twelve months.
Thursday’s results will test whether diversification strategy can sustain its growth trajectory in an agricultural lending market facing its most challenging conditions in years.
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