The year 2025 was the year of commodities. While gold and silver dazzled and stole the limelight, copper also delivered strong returns last year.
Domestic spot gold jumped by ₹56,727, or 75%, per 10 grams, while silver surged by ₹1,43,601, or 167%, per kg in 2025. Copper, too, clocked a solid gain of 50% last year.
While copper underperformed gold and silver, speculation is rife that it could deliver in 2026 the kind of returns that gold and silver saw in 2025.
Copper remained volatile in 2025 on demand-supply mismatch, tariff-related uncertainties and geopolitical factors. The metal is expected to deliver healthy gains in 2026, driven by tight supply, disruptions in key producing regions amid rising demand from industries such as renewables, EVs, and data centres.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, highlighted that copper has seen its longest winning streak since 2017. It rallied through December as expectations for further stress in the global supply chain grew.
Comex Futures have risen more than 40% this year, marking the largest annual increase since 2009. A weaker US dollar, which makes metals cheaper for buyers using other currencies, has also pushed prices up. The overall value of the dollar has dropped about 8% in 2025,” Trivedi.
“With a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook and ongoing supply risks, the overall situation for copper remains the same, with a ‘perfect storm’ continuing in the fourth quarter,” Trivedi said.
Ready for a rally?
Bhavik Joshi, Business Head of INVasset PMS, highlighted that gold and silver dominated returns in 2025 because they function primarily as monetary metals, while copper sits firmly in the industrial and strategic metals complex.
Joshi underscored that this distinction matters because monetary metals respond to macro-financial stress, real-rate compression, currency debasement, and geopolitics, whereas copper’s returns are driven by physical demand growth, capital expenditure cycles, and supply constraints.
Joshi believes copper’s 2026 setup is more conditional but structurally interesting.
“Demand is increasingly anchored in electrification, energy transition investments, EV adoption, power-grid expansion, and AI-led data-centre infrastructure. Grid bottlenecks and transmission upgrades are copper-intensive and less discretionary than housing demand, raising the probability that copper consumption gradually decouples from property cycles,” said Joshi.
“Supply remains the critical constraint. Ore-grade deterioration, ageing assets, ESG-related permitting delays, geopolitical risk, and years of under-investment have left copper supply structurally inelastic. Even modest demand acceleration can therefore create outsized price responses,” Joshi said.
Joshi said that while property weakness persists, infrastructure, grid investment, and manufacturing upgrades provide partial offsets. A recovery in global manufacturing PMIs and capex would materially strengthen copper’s demand profile.
According to Joshi, matching gold and silver’s 2025 returns in 2026 is possible but not automatic.
“It requires synchronised global capex, sustained energy-transition spending, and no major growth shock. Copper offers a growth-linked opportunity, not a monetary hedge, with higher upside potential but meaningfully higher drawdown risk,” said Joshi.
Tushar Badjate, director of Badjate PMS, highlighted that while copper is recyclable, effective supply growth continues to lag structural demand, keeping the outlook constructive.
“The real edge for investors lies in understanding where each metal fits within the cycle. Gold and silver protect and preserve wealth during uncertainty, while copper compounds value through economic expansion. A well-structured metals allocation doesn’t chase limelight—it builds resilience, balance, and long-term returns,” said Badjate.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.