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Copper prices are set for their strongest year since the Great Financial Crisis.
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The metal is up 42% year to date, its largest gain since 2009.
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Factors pushing it higher include supply-demand concerns, AI hype, and tariff concerns.
Gold’s amber-colored cousin is quietly moving through the ranks.
Copper, an element seen as central to the AI data center buildout, is on track to post its best year since the Great Financial Crisis.
The metal’s 3-month price on the London Metals Exchange hovered around $12,222 per metric ton on Tuesday, down slightly from a record high of $12,960 per metric ton on Monday. That puts copper up 42% from levels at the start of the year, marking its best year-to-date gains since 2009.
As of Tuesday, the metal notched its eighth straight day of wins, its longest winning streak in eight years, according to an analysis from top economist David Rosenberg.
For copper — an industrial that’s taken the backseat to precious metals in recent years — there are a few things that explain its blistering rally:
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Hype for artificial intelligence. The element is a key component of data centers and regarded as an adjacent investment to the AI trade.
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Supply/demand imbalance. The industry is facing supply challenges at the same time that demand for electrification is growing. The US has also been aggressively stockpiling copper ahead of tariffs, another factor that’s driven up prices.
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Tariff chaos. Copper prices got a big leg up this summer after President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on certain copper and copper-intensive goods.
Copper’s winning year has largely been fueled by “relentless supply-deficit concerns,” Rosenberg wrote in a recent note to clients.
Copper also looks to be partly influenced by a great year for metals all around. Gold, in particular, is up 64% from the start of the year, and tends to take metals like silver and copper up along with it, Art Hogan, the chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, told Business Insider.
“When the group starts to move, they all move together,” he said of broader rally in precious metals.
Wall Street doesn’t think that momentum will die out anytime soon.
Analysts on JPMorgan’s market intelligence team said they expected copper prices to climb to around $12,500 per metric ton in the first half of next year, thanks to tailwinds like AI demand and tariffs being potentially rolled back.
Goldman Sachs said it expected copper to hit $15,000 per metric ton over the next decade, implying 22% upside from the metal’s current levels.