Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile is Teck’s largest copper project. (Image courtesy of Teck Resources.)
Copper surged to a 16-month high in London Wednesday when Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B)(NYSE: TECK) lowered its copper production guidance for 2025 after persistent setbacks at its Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in Chile and Highland Valley Copper (HVC) operation in Canada.
Prices climbed as much as 0.5% to $10,815 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange. The company said it now expects to produce 170,000 to 190,000 tons in 2025, down from its previous target of 210,000 to 230,000 tons. Teck also trimmed annual production targets for the next three years.
The QB project has long frustrated investors, coming in $4 billion over budget and years behind schedule. Current challenges include tailings storage at the high-altitude site in the Andes, as well as damage to key equipment and instability within the mine pit.
So far this year, copper prices have risen about 23%, as mounting supply concerns outweigh weak demand in major industrial economies. Analysts have cut output projections after a series of accidents and operational setbacks at mines in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, leading many to anticipate sizable supply deficits.
Supply worries intensified after Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia—the world’s second-largest copper operation—following severe flooding that halted production. The company confirmed over the weekend that all seven missing workers were found dead after the discovery of five additional bodies.
“We are in a world of unprecedented copper supply disruptions, and many of these issues are not short-term,” analysts at Jefferies wrote in a note. “Yet another miss at QB just adds more fuel to the fire.”
Citigroup analysts expect copper to climb further, forecasting prices could reach $12,000 per tonne in the first half of next year amid supply cuts and favorable macro trends, including a weaker US dollar. They project prices will gradually ease through 2026 as disrupted mines resume production.
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On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), three-month copper futures rose 1.15% to $11,343 per tonne ($5.156 per pound).
(With files from Bloomberg)