Futures positioning still shows hedging demand from real-asset allocators, and central-bank purchases—led by emerging markets—continue to provide a durable bid. The offset: a firmer U.S. dollar recovered last week’s dip, trimming bullion’s momentum even as policy turns friendlier.
Global stocks extended gains, siphoning some flows from defensive assets. The dollar’s rebound and slightly higher real yields tightened financial conditions just enough to cap new inflows into gold ETFs.
“The Fed’s glide path matters more than the single cut,” one macro strategist said, highlighting that the rate trajectory into 2025–2026 remains the key driver.
With no top-tier U.S. data at the start of the week, speeches from FOMC officials—including Chair Jerome Powell—could shift currency and rates, setting the tone for metals. If the dollar softens on guidance of further easing, gold and silver would likely benefit; if officials lean hawkish, near-term rallies could stall.
Silver’s Industrial Pulse vs. Safe-Haven Bid
Silver straddles two stories: safe-haven appeal and industrial pull. Fabrication demand tied to electronics and photovoltaics has grown rapidly, with solar manufacturing now accounting for roughly a third of silver’s industrial use, according to industry estimates. That linkage makes silver more sensitive to global PMIs and supply-chain signals than gold.
On the investment side, coin and bar purchases remain healthy, while ETF flows are mixed, tracking swings in the dollar and rates. Geopolitical tensions keep a modest risk premium in both metals, but silver’s path is also tied to factory activity, clean-energy build-outs, and grid investment.